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Y-12E

This tag is associated with 6 posts

SUMMARY: The Chinese COMAC C919 airliner made its first flight today (May 5, 2017), and hopefully it will not be long before it is delivered to its first customer, China Eastern. The Comac ARJ-21-700 regional jet (evolved from the locally built MD-82’s and MD-90-30’s programs) took an incredibly long 2,769 days (93.3 months or 7.6 years) from its first flight to delivery to its first customer. This C919, is NO ARJ-21, this is an aircraft China can be proud of and one that can and will compete with Airbus, Boeing, Irkut and Bombardier when it gets its EASA Type Certificate which will take time, as the shadow certification of the ARJ-21 with the FAA did not materialize. Yes, there will be many issues with very poor sales & marketing, product support and after sales service, something Comac has no experience with and AVIC is horrible at. The ARJ-21 has no FAA certification and most likely never will, and will be relegated to flying for Chinese airlines and the very few “dubious” nations that do not require EASA or FAA certification for local registration and operations. The C919 has 99 orders, 227 options and 566 “commitments” so well over its stated break-even of 400 units. A proud day indeed, given the fiasco with the ARJ-21, now Comac will work with EASA to shadow certify the C919, but that will take a few years for sure, so no immediate concerns for the other 4 competing OEM’s. Lastly, this C919 is not the first Chinese indigenous jet airliner, back in 1970 the Chinese then under Chairman Mao Zedung, developed the Shanghai Y-10, a close similarity to the Boeing B720/B707, but it started way before President Richard Nixon’s famous trip to China in 1972 with Air Force One, a C-137 Stratoliner, a modified long range Boeing B707, referred to as SAM26000 (special air mission), in service from 1962 to 1999.

With the Comac C919 making its first flight, China finally has a commercial aircraft it can be proud off, and this aircraft will be able to compete with the Airbus A320neo, Bombardier’s CS300, Irkut MC-21, Boeing B737-7 and, B737-8 in time as it will require years to get its EASA certification, but Chinese airlines who … Continue reading

UPDATE: The Czech Republic’s remaining 2 aircraft manufacturers are each facing an uncertain future for different reasons. Evektor struggles to finance its EV-55 Outback as its Malaysian investment partners have proven to be unreliable and “dubious” in their plans for the company and its EV-55 Outback program, while Aircraft Industrie’s (ex-LET Kunovice) new L-410NG is in certification, but Russian owners are already building an assembly plant in Yekaterinburg, while Russian owner is also talking about a Chinese assembly line in China after a recent order for 20 x L-410 UVP-E20’s with GE H80 engines, 3 assembly lines each doing what 10-12 units a year ? Russia is looking to be free of western supplies, as more economic sanctions are a real possibility but “Russianisation” of its own and western aircraft will not be easy or go down well with western customers should they wish to export them one day. Both the EV-55 Outback and L-410NG are partially funded by the Czech Ministry of Industry and Trade, and Czech Government needs to make sure both programs stay in the Czech Republic and not be moved to Russia, China or Malaysia, as that would be a major blow for the Czech Republic’s Kunovice region, the center of the Czech aircraft manufacturing industry today. A quick look at the 19 passenger regional un-pressurized market (+ 4,389 aircraft delivered since 1963), which today has 4 of the original 10 aircraft programs in production with 2 more programs to be resurrected in the next 3 years. While the totally new Chinese AVIC Y-12F is now FAA certified and it is impressive indeed. Finally, a look at original factory prices versus used prices today which in the case of the DHC-6-300 Twin Otter are 100% to 140% higher than when they rolled out from the factory 35+ years ago, jet airliners cannot touch the resale value retention of some of the 19 passenger regional turboprops, why ?

READ: Latest Articles on Evektor and its EV-55 Outback program problems (April 11, 2016) plus articles on 2015 General Aviation Market turboprop deliveries (February 16, 2016) and the 19 seat regional turboprop market. READ: Article on Eastern European commercial aircraft industry, June 2, 2015 and on the Chinese Y-12E and new Y-12F, November 27, 2014. … Continue reading

UPDATE: Evektor EV-55 Outback, the 10-14 seat twin PT6A powered un-pressurized utility aircraft is in trouble, Malaysian investor Aspirasi Pertiwi stopped planned its funding, 2 out of 3 Czech shareholders face possible criminal charges in “shareholder’s war”, available cash is very low and certification is way behind schedule. The Czech Republic has 2 new turboprop programs, the Aircraft Industries L-410NG and the Evektor -EV-55 Outback, both were ordered by China last week with 20 x L-410’s for Xinjian General Aviation and a possible Chinese assembly line and MOU for 300 x EV-55 Outbacks from Evektor Asia Pacific, a dubious sales representative for Evektor connected to the Malaysians. The Tecnam P2012 a 11 seat piston twin is ready for first flight as Air Cape readies to confirm its 100 unit MOU, while Evektor’s future is not so bright. The BIG lesson is don’t just jump at any investor, find a strategic investor that can assist beyond just money.

READ: past article on EV-55 Outback program, January 16, 2016 READ: past article on 2015 General Aviation turboprop market, February 16, 2016 On March 30, 2015 China’s President Xi Jinping concluded his visit to the Czech Republic, and left with 30 deals signed worth $4.0 billion, which includes 20 x L-410NG regional 19 seat turboprops … Continue reading

SUMMARY: Consolidation in the Canadian regional airline industry is slower than I expected, but recent acquisitions by West Wind Aviation of Osprey Wings and Harbour Air (aka “World’s Largest Seaplane Airline”) acquisition of Salt Spring Air on top of EIC acquiring Provincial Aerospace and Chorus Aviation acquiring Voyageur Airways earlier in 2015 gives me some hope for more mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity in this sector over the next 1-3 years. In fact, Harbour Air itself has sold 49% of it’s equity to a Chinese investor in 2015, and is now planning to enter the highly questionable Chinese seaplane market , just as it solidifies it’s dominant market position in and around the Vancouver area having also acquired Whistler Air (in 2012) and West Coast Air (in 2010), and then divested itself off Prince Rupert based North Pacific Seaplanes (in 2013). There are 6 privately owned Canadian regional airlines that could be in play in the next 2-3 years, as several airlines are well into their 2nd generation of management by owners and most do not have a 3rd generation waiting to take control and few are actually growing and basically stuck in their traditional market. Publicly owned Exchange Income Corporation (EIC) with 5 airlines now has shown that you can make money with regional airlines as long as you have good management, a good market position/niche and financing behind you. The industry is changing, in the north, most airlines are now First Nation owned and the remaining privately owned airlines will find eager investors if they truly want to sell and are prepared for suitors before they need a buyer, as most small airlines are unprepared to generate interest with potential buyers, as they don’t even know how to value their business’s worth, what are its attributes and how to attract a broader pool of investors willing to pay more for the company. Last, I will discuss the growth of seaplane airlines around the world and the need for new aircraft beyond just old landplanes with bulky and heavy floats attached, for the industry to really grow.

I have previously discussed the Canadian regional airline market, and that consolidation is coming as family run airlines are looking to sell their airlines, as witnessed by Exchange Income Corporation (EIC) of Winnipeg (TSX:EIF), which has bought 5 Canadian private family regional airlines in the past 12 years, and surely eyeing more: Perimeter Aviation in … Continue reading

SUMMARY: Paris Air Show 2015 is done, the winners were again the duopoly of Airbus and Boeing with 752 orders ($US 107.2 billion at “list price”) out of a total of 958 orders. The BIG loser was surely Bombardier which finally after 7 years from its launch, made its debut with both the CS100 and CS300 airliners, but left the show with 0 (zero) in new orders for their CSeries, Q400 and CRJ’s brands, which should be worrying, but after the show Bombardier said it was “absolutely satisfied”, with what ? The fact it had to choose the little known, barely profitable, Latvian government owned airBaltic as its launch customer for the CS300 (13 x CS300’s on order and 7 options) says novels about the poor quality of its order book. The airline’s order has a “list price” value of $US 1.44 billion, yet this airline has made a profit of only $US 11 million in the past 5 years on revenues of $US 688 million (1.6% net profit margin) ? unfortunately they have no “better” airline for such an important role. Meanwhile Bombardier now seriously talks of a stretched 160-180 seat CS500 to challenge Boeing and Airbus ? really ? it’s stock price keeps dropping, (TSE:BBD/B) is at $C 2.25 today down 45.8% YTD (year to date) and the corresponding drop in market capitalization to only $US 5.11 billion, investors are worried and Bombardier wants to spend more money on a CS500 to take on the big duopoly of Boeing and Airbus head on in the most lucrative market, the single-aisle/narrow-body segment ? Individual losers were the A380, A350-1000 and the MRJ, with no new orders, while little known Viking Air of Canada announces 50 “orders” from China for its pricey $US +7.5 million Series 400 Twin Otter even though the Chinese have a similar, good performing, FAA certified and cheaper Y-12E ? Embraer celebrated its 2 year anniversary at Paris of its E2 launch, booked 25 E2 orders at the show and now has 325 firm orders, while the CSeries is now 7 years past its launch (July 18, 2008) with only 243 firm orders, but realistically it is only 130 orders at best. ATR books 46 orders and 35 options at the show, as it solidifies its market dominance in the large turboprop market segment after 160 firm orders in 2014. Sukhoi’s SSJ-100/95 gets an order for 3 as shamefully up to 33 “white tails” (out of 85 delivered, or 39% of delivered aircraft) await customers even with price discounts of 56%, while the program struggles with production, sales, marketing, corporate governance and politics, as 51% partner Finmeccanica (Italy) is restructuring and understandably contemplating its exit from the Italian-Russian joint venture and surprisingly it also has doubts on its future with the very successful ATR program where its fully owned subsidiary Alenia-Aermacchi is a 50% partner with Airbus Group. Airbus and Boeing want to increase production of single aisle/narrow-body airliners (B737Max now has 2,773 orders and A320neo has 3,854 orders) to a possible 115 per month (Boeing to 52, Airbus to 63) by 2018 ! is that over optimism in this unprecedented period of growth ? can the already over extended supply chain even handle the extra work ? With an average monthly delivery of 112 aircraft in 2014 of all sized aircraft by both OEM’s (1,349 units), the latest Boeing 20 year forecast of 35,560 aircraft would translate to an average of 148 aircraft per month for all sized aircraft by both OEM’s, an increase of 32% on 2014 delivery numbers, with new orders in 1st half of 2015 already down on 2014 ? What role do speculative orders play in this order frenzy ? Deals at Paris are always quoted in List Prices but who is getting a good deal ? are you getting a good deal ? how do you know you got a good deal when almost everyone gets a discount, no one pays List Price and it is all so secretive, so how low can Boeing and Airbus go ? how about 64% off on big orders ? yup, enough to make sure that new competitors like the CS500, C919 and MC-21 do not win orders based on price. Lastly, Russia’s aggressive stand against NATO is seriously raising tensions in European countries on the Russian border, since 2008 Russia has annexed and integrated 4 Russian speaking enclaves/territories from 3 of its neighbors (Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine), now open conflict is a real possibility, and Russia’s military thinks a small tactical nuclear response today is possible without triggering a WW III ! in this political environment it is time for tough economic sanctions on Russia and especially its aerospace industry, the Sukhoi SSJ-100 is getting lots of financial support from President Putin, as it is the only Russian commercial aircraft ever built with any western appeal. It is time to stop buying Russian aircraft and stop ALL support for Russia’s aerospace industry, as any military conflict with Russia will make corporate profits absolutely irrelevant anyway !

With the 2015 Paris Air Show now behind us, it is worth to look at the final results of the big aerospace event and analyze the winners and the losers as it gives a pulse on which OEM’s are on top of their game and those that are not. —————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————– The battle in the narrowbody … Continue reading

SUMMARY: On the Chinese Harbin Y-12, Coptervision, an unknown US company (rumored to be Vision Airlines) has apparently “ordered” 20 of the only FAA certified Chinese civilian airliner, the Harbin (HAIC) Y-12E which was certified back in 1995 as the Y-12-IV. Is the aircraft cominging to the USA ? or is this another “ruse” as the same big order was placed by a unknown Canadian company last year and nothing has happened since. What is the Y-12E and Y-12F and can they both be on the same Type Certificate when they are two different aircraft ? is it any good ? and why has no ‘western’ country imported one 19 years after certification ? is this a major breakthrough for the Chinese ? Clearly the rugged Y-12E has good sales potential (PT6A-135 engine, western avionics, fixed gear), but it is not marketed or promoted very well, in fact the Chinese do not know how to sell commercial aircraft and they better learn before they start production of the Comac C919 and Avic MA700. Finally a quick a look at the state of the 19 seat un-pressurized market today, what is out there today and what new aircraft are coming to the market and what sells and what does not.

The recent 10th annual Zhuhai Airshow (Nov 11-16) produced a surprise order that I think is big though few have taken notice of the order for 20 Harbin Aircraft Industry Group (HAIG) 19 seat Y-12E and Y-12F unpressurized PT6 powered regional airliners. The aircraft has a lot of sales potential, but it has been totally … Continue reading