This tag is associated with 5 posts

Summary: The 1st half, 2017 General Aviation turboprop delivery figures are out, with 230 deliveries (down 1.3%), (261 engines, all PT6’s, except 10 x GE H80’s) total sales of $703.8M (-13%), and once again the Agricultural Market leads in deliveries with 86 deliveries worth $108.8M. BIG winners are Air Tractor (agricultural aircraft,) with deliveries up 47% to 69, Piper (M500/600) +138% to 19, and Daher (TBM 910/930) +28% to 23. The BIG loser is Textron Aviation, down by 28 aircraft (-34%) from 81 aircraft to 53 aircraft) with a reduction of deliveries by 10 x Caravans and 18 x King Airs versus 1H/2016, the reduction in deliveries is valued at $132.8M, what is going on with the Caravan and King Air sales ? Is there a demand drop ? if so why ? Another loser is Piaggio with NO delivery of its Avanti EVO in 2017 yet (only 1 in 2016) a “walking dead” program for a long time, while Pacific Aerospace is not far off as it has delivered just 1 PAC750 XStol in 2017 (3 in 2016) ? no sign of Big Chinese order ? no surprise, and how long can you keep going with such low production rates ? Meanwhile new competing turboprop products are coming from EPIC, Mahindra, Quest and Textron, only the strong will survive.

The 1st Half 2017 GAMA numbers are out and I have looked at the turboprop deliveries and sales for these first 6 months of 2017 against the first six months of 2016. The 1st half 2017 deliveries are 230 vs 233 in 2016 (-1.3%) and total sales are $703.8 million down $105.8 million (-13%) on … Continue reading

SUMMARY: A small airline in Thunder Bay, Ontario, North Star Air Ltd. has been bought for $C 31M ($US 23M) by Winnipeg based North West Company (NWC), a large Canadian grocery and retail company with +218 stores, many in remote and isolated communities across Canada’s North. The driver of this deal was to control its distribution by having its own cargo airline, and not being dependent on what is basically a air cargo monopoly by Calm Air in the Manitoba, Nunavut and Kivalliq regions, where NWC has many stores, and where the First Nations communities are totally dependent on aircraft for all their local needs for most of the year. The acquisition raises the problem of a lack of competition in many parts of the North, where communities and suppliers have all but one choice of airline in and out of many communities, which in many cases allows for high margin “monopoly” pricing. Canada has no Essential Air Service (EAS) like the USA, which subsidizes scheduled air services to 150 markets of which 44 are in remote parts of Alaska with single engine turboprops like the CE-208B to SF340’s and CRJ-200’s at a cost of $250M a year (President Trump looking to cut that). Canadian passengers and suppliers in the North have no choice but to pay the very high fares and freight rates demanded by air operators. Time for a new fresh look at affordable air access in the North ? if we are to develop the North as Ottawa says, then we cannot burden and punish the people there with high fares and freight rates, that make life their very expensive as everything in most communities goes by air, from groceries, lumber to even fuel for electric generators.

It has been pretty quite on the Canadian airline mergers and acquisition front since the late June, 2016 acquisition of Transwest Airlines (Prince Albert, Saskatchewan) by local rival West Wind Aviation (Saskatoon, Saskatchewan). That deal created another Provincial regional airline monopoly, just as EIC (Exchange Income Corporation) has in neighboring Manitoba, where it now owns … Continue reading

SUMMARY: The 2014 General Aviation turboprop market did very well again with 603 aircraft delivered from 10 OEM’s (from 6 countries) down 6.5% from 2013. The delivery value was $US 1.887 billion down 5.6% from 2013, with 79% of all deliveries being single engine turboprops (474 aircraft), of which 26% were pressurized singles (157 aircraft) and 53% (317 aircraft) were un-pressurized singles which includes Agricultural aircraft (aka ‘crop dusters’) with 30% of all deliveries (181 aircraft). Twin turbine deliveries were 21% (129 aircraft) of all turbine deliveries (98% were King Air’s), the BIG winners were Textron Aviation with 221 deliveries (Caravan and King Air line), Pilatus with 76 deliveries (PC-12 and PC-6) and Socata with 51 deliveries (TBM900). The BIG losers were Extra (EA500) with 2 deliveries, Piaggio (Avanti II) with 2 deliveries and PAC (750XL) with 4 deliveries and these OEM’s have a highly questionable future ahead with such low production rates and owners risk having an ‘orphaned’ aircraft (out of production with no support and little resale value). Only 5 of the 10 OEM’s are US based BUT only 3 of the OEM’s are actually US owned, and 6 out of the 10 OEM’s produce only one turboprop model with 10 new programs in the works, including 4 high speed pressurized turboprop singles and 5 un-pressurized twin turbine aircraft (4 of which are “revivals” from the past, so only 1 “new” twin model). The new models are ‘hoping’ to enter the highly risky GA market shortly, though few of them will ever make it all the way to certification, production and successful commercialization, you need lots of money, have the right people in place and most importantly a product the market actually ‘needs’ !

READ : The 2015 General Aviation Market of February 16, 2016 The numbers are in for the production of general aviation (GA) turboprops in 2014, and while the year was slightly down from 2013 it was a good year with 603 produced for a net value of $US 1.887 billion between 10 OEM (original equipment … Continue reading

SUMMARY: Pilatus Aircraft has rolled out its first business jet, the PC-24 is being marketed as the “Super Versatile Jet” ? AND “it’s the only aircraft combining the versatility of the turboprop with the size of a medium size jet and the performance of a light jet” ? AND “It’s a plane that simply does not fit into any of the existing business jet categories” ? to good to be true ? or marketing gone wild ? Is there really a market for operating into remote, short and dangerous unprepared airstrips with a $8.9 million jet with high net worth VIP’s on board or a mere 2,500 lbs of cargo on board ? come on, really ? Simply Pilatus is exaggerating and misleading customers, it has a jet with a big cabin equal to biz jets of $15+ million (501 ft3), and that is its big and unique value proposition. Promises of great short field performance is highly questionable as power to weight ratio (0.39) is at par with existing aircraft and the wings and flaps are too close to the ground to be safe for any unprepared airfield operations. Contrary to Pilatus claims the PC-24 is NOT designed for short unprepared airfields, nothing on its design is unique in that perspective, but it will be very attractive to buyers for its large cabin size at a relative low price. If you really need to fly into remote,unprepared and short airfields, buy their PC-6 or PC-12 but not the PC-24, sorry but this is just a case of marketing myopia, and marketing gone wild ! This is not a PC-6 or PC-12 where you can almost go anywhere, this is a high value business jet for high net worth clients, who are not going to risk their lives going into short rough airfield in remote regions, that is just silly marketing, that will backfire, its like marketing an expensive limousine to drive VIP’s into remote rough terrain regions or to load your expensive limousine with freight ? dum idea no ?

The August 1, 2014 roll out of the new $US 8.9 (2017 price) or around $US 8.4m (2014) Pilatus PC-24 business jet was very impressive, and a major milestone for Pilatus Aircraft as it diversifies its product range beyond its military PC-7 and PC-21 turboprop trainer sales and build on its 1,200+ delivered PC-12 single … Continue reading

In 2013 General Aviation Turboprop deliveries hit an all time high with 645 deliveries valued at $US 2.0 billion from 11 manufacturers and now 9 new manufacturers are planning to enter the market with new aircraft, and surprisingly the Agricultural aircraft market is now 35% of ALL turboprop deliveries !

READ General Aviation market in 2015 article of February 16, 2016 My career is very diverse, and as much as I love working with and for airlines of all sizes all over the world, I also love to sell and market aircraft, and I have sold new and pre-owned executive business jets, turboprops, regional turboprops … Continue reading