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Evektor EV-55

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UPDATE: The Czech Republic’s remaining 2 aircraft manufacturers are each facing an uncertain future for different reasons. Evektor struggles to finance its EV-55 Outback as its Malaysian investment partners have proven to be unreliable and “dubious” in their plans for the company and its EV-55 Outback program, while Aircraft Industrie’s (ex-LET Kunovice) new L-410NG is in certification, but Russian owners are already building an assembly plant in Yekaterinburg, while Russian owner is also talking about a Chinese assembly line in China after a recent order for 20 x L-410 UVP-E20’s with GE H80 engines, 3 assembly lines each doing what 10-12 units a year ? Russia is looking to be free of western supplies, as more economic sanctions are a real possibility but “Russianisation” of its own and western aircraft will not be easy or go down well with western customers should they wish to export them one day. Both the EV-55 Outback and L-410NG are partially funded by the Czech Ministry of Industry and Trade, and Czech Government needs to make sure both programs stay in the Czech Republic and not be moved to Russia, China or Malaysia, as that would be a major blow for the Czech Republic’s Kunovice region, the center of the Czech aircraft manufacturing industry today. A quick look at the 19 passenger regional un-pressurized market (+ 4,389 aircraft delivered since 1963), which today has 4 of the original 10 aircraft programs in production with 2 more programs to be resurrected in the next 3 years. While the totally new Chinese AVIC Y-12F is now FAA certified and it is impressive indeed. Finally, a look at original factory prices versus used prices today which in the case of the DHC-6-300 Twin Otter are 100% to 140% higher than when they rolled out from the factory 35+ years ago, jet airliners cannot touch the resale value retention of some of the 19 passenger regional turboprops, why ?

READ: Latest Articles on Evektor and its EV-55 Outback program problems (April 11, 2016) plus articles on 2015 General Aviation Market turboprop deliveries (February 16, 2016) and the 19 seat regional turboprop market. READ: Article on Eastern European commercial aircraft industry, June 2, 2015 and on the Chinese Y-12E and new Y-12F, November 27, 2014. … Continue reading

SUMMARY: Consolidation in the Canadian regional airline industry is slower than I expected, but recent acquisitions by West Wind Aviation of Osprey Wings and Harbour Air (aka “World’s Largest Seaplane Airline”) acquisition of Salt Spring Air on top of EIC acquiring Provincial Aerospace and Chorus Aviation acquiring Voyageur Airways earlier in 2015 gives me some hope for more mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity in this sector over the next 1-3 years. In fact, Harbour Air itself has sold 49% of it’s equity to a Chinese investor in 2015, and is now planning to enter the highly questionable Chinese seaplane market , just as it solidifies it’s dominant market position in and around the Vancouver area having also acquired Whistler Air (in 2012) and West Coast Air (in 2010), and then divested itself off Prince Rupert based North Pacific Seaplanes (in 2013). There are 6 privately owned Canadian regional airlines that could be in play in the next 2-3 years, as several airlines are well into their 2nd generation of management by owners and most do not have a 3rd generation waiting to take control and few are actually growing and basically stuck in their traditional market. Publicly owned Exchange Income Corporation (EIC) with 5 airlines now has shown that you can make money with regional airlines as long as you have good management, a good market position/niche and financing behind you. The industry is changing, in the north, most airlines are now First Nation owned and the remaining privately owned airlines will find eager investors if they truly want to sell and are prepared for suitors before they need a buyer, as most small airlines are unprepared to generate interest with potential buyers, as they don’t even know how to value their business’s worth, what are its attributes and how to attract a broader pool of investors willing to pay more for the company. Last, I will discuss the growth of seaplane airlines around the world and the need for new aircraft beyond just old landplanes with bulky and heavy floats attached, for the industry to really grow.

I have previously discussed the Canadian regional airline market, and that consolidation is coming as family run airlines are looking to sell their airlines, as witnessed by Exchange Income Corporation (EIC) of Winnipeg (TSX:EIF), which has bought 5 Canadian private family regional airlines in the past 12 years, and surely eyeing more: Perimeter Aviation in … Continue reading

SUMMARY: The 2014 General Aviation turboprop market did very well again with 603 aircraft delivered from 10 OEM’s (from 6 countries) down 6.5% from 2013. The delivery value was $US 1.887 billion down 5.6% from 2013, with 79% of all deliveries being single engine turboprops (474 aircraft), of which 26% were pressurized singles (157 aircraft) and 53% (317 aircraft) were un-pressurized singles which includes Agricultural aircraft (aka ‘crop dusters’) with 30% of all deliveries (181 aircraft). Twin turbine deliveries were 21% (129 aircraft) of all turbine deliveries (98% were King Air’s), the BIG winners were Textron Aviation with 221 deliveries (Caravan and King Air line), Pilatus with 76 deliveries (PC-12 and PC-6) and Socata with 51 deliveries (TBM900). The BIG losers were Extra (EA500) with 2 deliveries, Piaggio (Avanti II) with 2 deliveries and PAC (750XL) with 4 deliveries and these OEM’s have a highly questionable future ahead with such low production rates and owners risk having an ‘orphaned’ aircraft (out of production with no support and little resale value). Only 5 of the 10 OEM’s are US based BUT only 3 of the OEM’s are actually US owned, and 6 out of the 10 OEM’s produce only one turboprop model with 10 new programs in the works, including 4 high speed pressurized turboprop singles and 5 un-pressurized twin turbine aircraft (4 of which are “revivals” from the past, so only 1 “new” twin model). The new models are ‘hoping’ to enter the highly risky GA market shortly, though few of them will ever make it all the way to certification, production and successful commercialization, you need lots of money, have the right people in place and most importantly a product the market actually ‘needs’ !

READ : The 2015 General Aviation Market of February 16, 2016 The numbers are in for the production of general aviation (GA) turboprops in 2014, and while the year was slightly down from 2013 it was a good year with 603 produced for a net value of $US 1.887 billion between 10 OEM (original equipment … Continue reading

SUMMARY: On the Chinese Harbin Y-12, Coptervision, an unknown US company (rumored to be Vision Airlines) has apparently “ordered” 20 of the only FAA certified Chinese civilian airliner, the Harbin (HAIC) Y-12E which was certified back in 1995 as the Y-12-IV. Is the aircraft cominging to the USA ? or is this another “ruse” as the same big order was placed by a unknown Canadian company last year and nothing has happened since. What is the Y-12E and Y-12F and can they both be on the same Type Certificate when they are two different aircraft ? is it any good ? and why has no ‘western’ country imported one 19 years after certification ? is this a major breakthrough for the Chinese ? Clearly the rugged Y-12E has good sales potential (PT6A-135 engine, western avionics, fixed gear), but it is not marketed or promoted very well, in fact the Chinese do not know how to sell commercial aircraft and they better learn before they start production of the Comac C919 and Avic MA700. Finally a quick a look at the state of the 19 seat un-pressurized market today, what is out there today and what new aircraft are coming to the market and what sells and what does not.

The recent 10th annual Zhuhai Airshow (Nov 11-16) produced a surprise order that I think is big though few have taken notice of the order for 20 Harbin Aircraft Industry Group (HAIG) 19 seat Y-12E and Y-12F unpressurized PT6 powered regional airliners. The aircraft has a lot of sales potential, but it has been totally … Continue reading