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UPDATE: Evektor EV-55 Outback, the 10-14 seat twin PT6A powered un-pressurized utility aircraft is in trouble, Malaysian investor Aspirasi Pertiwi stopped planned its funding, 2 out of 3 Czech shareholders face possible criminal charges in “shareholder’s war”, available cash is very low and certification is way behind schedule. The Czech Republic has 2 new turboprop programs, the Aircraft Industries L-410NG and the Evektor -EV-55 Outback, both were ordered by China last week with 20 x L-410’s for Xinjian General Aviation and a possible Chinese assembly line and MOU for 300 x EV-55 Outbacks from Evektor Asia Pacific, a dubious sales representative for Evektor connected to the Malaysians. The Tecnam P2012 a 11 seat piston twin is ready for first flight as Air Cape readies to confirm its 100 unit MOU, while Evektor’s future is not so bright. The BIG lesson is don’t just jump at any investor, find a strategic investor that can assist beyond just money.

READ: past article on EV-55 Outback program, January 16, 2016 READ: past article on 2015 General Aviation turboprop market, February 16, 2016 On March 30, 2015 China’s President Xi Jinping concluded his visit to the Czech Republic, and left with 30 deals signed worth $4.0 billion, which includes 20 x L-410NG regional 19 seat turboprops … Continue reading

SUMMARY: Paris Air Show 2015 is done, the winners were again the duopoly of Airbus and Boeing with 752 orders ($US 107.2 billion at “list price”) out of a total of 958 orders. The BIG loser was surely Bombardier which finally after 7 years from its launch, made its debut with both the CS100 and CS300 airliners, but left the show with 0 (zero) in new orders for their CSeries, Q400 and CRJ’s brands, which should be worrying, but after the show Bombardier said it was “absolutely satisfied”, with what ? The fact it had to choose the little known, barely profitable, Latvian government owned airBaltic as its launch customer for the CS300 (13 x CS300’s on order and 7 options) says novels about the poor quality of its order book. The airline’s order has a “list price” value of $US 1.44 billion, yet this airline has made a profit of only $US 11 million in the past 5 years on revenues of $US 688 million (1.6% net profit margin) ? unfortunately they have no “better” airline for such an important role. Meanwhile Bombardier now seriously talks of a stretched 160-180 seat CS500 to challenge Boeing and Airbus ? really ? it’s stock price keeps dropping, (TSE:BBD/B) is at $C 2.25 today down 45.8% YTD (year to date) and the corresponding drop in market capitalization to only $US 5.11 billion, investors are worried and Bombardier wants to spend more money on a CS500 to take on the big duopoly of Boeing and Airbus head on in the most lucrative market, the single-aisle/narrow-body segment ? Individual losers were the A380, A350-1000 and the MRJ, with no new orders, while little known Viking Air of Canada announces 50 “orders” from China for its pricey $US +7.5 million Series 400 Twin Otter even though the Chinese have a similar, good performing, FAA certified and cheaper Y-12E ? Embraer celebrated its 2 year anniversary at Paris of its E2 launch, booked 25 E2 orders at the show and now has 325 firm orders, while the CSeries is now 7 years past its launch (July 18, 2008) with only 243 firm orders, but realistically it is only 130 orders at best. ATR books 46 orders and 35 options at the show, as it solidifies its market dominance in the large turboprop market segment after 160 firm orders in 2014. Sukhoi’s SSJ-100/95 gets an order for 3 as shamefully up to 33 “white tails” (out of 85 delivered, or 39% of delivered aircraft) await customers even with price discounts of 56%, while the program struggles with production, sales, marketing, corporate governance and politics, as 51% partner Finmeccanica (Italy) is restructuring and understandably contemplating its exit from the Italian-Russian joint venture and surprisingly it also has doubts on its future with the very successful ATR program where its fully owned subsidiary Alenia-Aermacchi is a 50% partner with Airbus Group. Airbus and Boeing want to increase production of single aisle/narrow-body airliners (B737Max now has 2,773 orders and A320neo has 3,854 orders) to a possible 115 per month (Boeing to 52, Airbus to 63) by 2018 ! is that over optimism in this unprecedented period of growth ? can the already over extended supply chain even handle the extra work ? With an average monthly delivery of 112 aircraft in 2014 of all sized aircraft by both OEM’s (1,349 units), the latest Boeing 20 year forecast of 35,560 aircraft would translate to an average of 148 aircraft per month for all sized aircraft by both OEM’s, an increase of 32% on 2014 delivery numbers, with new orders in 1st half of 2015 already down on 2014 ? What role do speculative orders play in this order frenzy ? Deals at Paris are always quoted in List Prices but who is getting a good deal ? are you getting a good deal ? how do you know you got a good deal when almost everyone gets a discount, no one pays List Price and it is all so secretive, so how low can Boeing and Airbus go ? how about 64% off on big orders ? yup, enough to make sure that new competitors like the CS500, C919 and MC-21 do not win orders based on price. Lastly, Russia’s aggressive stand against NATO is seriously raising tensions in European countries on the Russian border, since 2008 Russia has annexed and integrated 4 Russian speaking enclaves/territories from 3 of its neighbors (Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine), now open conflict is a real possibility, and Russia’s military thinks a small tactical nuclear response today is possible without triggering a WW III ! in this political environment it is time for tough economic sanctions on Russia and especially its aerospace industry, the Sukhoi SSJ-100 is getting lots of financial support from President Putin, as it is the only Russian commercial aircraft ever built with any western appeal. It is time to stop buying Russian aircraft and stop ALL support for Russia’s aerospace industry, as any military conflict with Russia will make corporate profits absolutely irrelevant anyway !

With the 2015 Paris Air Show now behind us, it is worth to look at the final results of the big aerospace event and analyze the winners and the losers as it gives a pulse on which OEM’s are on top of their game and those that are not. —————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————– The battle in the narrowbody … Continue reading

ABSTRACT: Bombardier announces its 4th round of lay-offs in 17 months, another 1,750 employees are let go on top of 5,200 laid-off already. The sacred “CASH COW” of Bombardier Aerospace, the high margin Ultra-Long Range Global brand is facing a softening in its market segment. The Bombardier Global brand (the $52M G5000 and $62M G6000) keeps Bombardier Aerospace alive, generating $4.5B (on 80 deliveries) in revenue in 2014 (43% of Aerospace revenue, 60% of Business Jet revenue with only 27% of deliveries). New competition from the Gulfstream’s G500/G600 and the Dassault Falcon 8X is threatening Global sales and margins at a time when Bombardier is bleeding cash certifying the CSeries and its new Globals ($75M G7000 and $71M G8000). Presently Bombardier Commercial has only 90 CRJ’s in backlog (18 months of production) and only 52 Q400’s in backlog (26 months of production), while the CSeries with $5.3B in deferred program costs and big price discounting by Airbus, Boeing and Embraer, will see every CSeries sold at a HUGE loss for many years to come. Now Bombardier is looking to sell its rail unit to raise cash, and in all seriousness all of this leaves the new Global 7000 and 8000 as the only hope for a brighter future at Bombardier Aerospace, and the possibility of a future Chinese acquisition of Bombardier Commercial (aka “Combardier”) is very real.

Once again Bombardier has acknowledged that things are not well with the world’s only plane and train manufacturer, and will lay-off another 1,750 employees on top of the 5,200 already announced since January 21, 2014. The big hit will be in Montreal (completions) with 1,000 employees, Toronto (assembly) with 480 employees and Belfast, Ireland with … Continue reading

SUMMARY: The 2014 General Aviation turboprop market did very well again with 603 aircraft delivered from 10 OEM’s (from 6 countries) down 6.5% from 2013. The delivery value was $US 1.887 billion down 5.6% from 2013, with 79% of all deliveries being single engine turboprops (474 aircraft), of which 26% were pressurized singles (157 aircraft) and 53% (317 aircraft) were un-pressurized singles which includes Agricultural aircraft (aka ‘crop dusters’) with 30% of all deliveries (181 aircraft). Twin turbine deliveries were 21% (129 aircraft) of all turbine deliveries (98% were King Air’s), the BIG winners were Textron Aviation with 221 deliveries (Caravan and King Air line), Pilatus with 76 deliveries (PC-12 and PC-6) and Socata with 51 deliveries (TBM900). The BIG losers were Extra (EA500) with 2 deliveries, Piaggio (Avanti II) with 2 deliveries and PAC (750XL) with 4 deliveries and these OEM’s have a highly questionable future ahead with such low production rates and owners risk having an ‘orphaned’ aircraft (out of production with no support and little resale value). Only 5 of the 10 OEM’s are US based BUT only 3 of the OEM’s are actually US owned, and 6 out of the 10 OEM’s produce only one turboprop model with 10 new programs in the works, including 4 high speed pressurized turboprop singles and 5 un-pressurized twin turbine aircraft (4 of which are “revivals” from the past, so only 1 “new” twin model). The new models are ‘hoping’ to enter the highly risky GA market shortly, though few of them will ever make it all the way to certification, production and successful commercialization, you need lots of money, have the right people in place and most importantly a product the market actually ‘needs’ !

READ : The 2015 General Aviation Market of February 16, 2016 The numbers are in for the production of general aviation (GA) turboprops in 2014, and while the year was slightly down from 2013 it was a good year with 603 produced for a net value of $US 1.887 billion between 10 OEM (original equipment … Continue reading

SUMMARY: On the Chinese Harbin Y-12, Coptervision, an unknown US company (rumored to be Vision Airlines) has apparently “ordered” 20 of the only FAA certified Chinese civilian airliner, the Harbin (HAIC) Y-12E which was certified back in 1995 as the Y-12-IV. Is the aircraft cominging to the USA ? or is this another “ruse” as the same big order was placed by a unknown Canadian company last year and nothing has happened since. What is the Y-12E and Y-12F and can they both be on the same Type Certificate when they are two different aircraft ? is it any good ? and why has no ‘western’ country imported one 19 years after certification ? is this a major breakthrough for the Chinese ? Clearly the rugged Y-12E has good sales potential (PT6A-135 engine, western avionics, fixed gear), but it is not marketed or promoted very well, in fact the Chinese do not know how to sell commercial aircraft and they better learn before they start production of the Comac C919 and Avic MA700. Finally a quick a look at the state of the 19 seat un-pressurized market today, what is out there today and what new aircraft are coming to the market and what sells and what does not.

The recent 10th annual Zhuhai Airshow (Nov 11-16) produced a surprise order that I think is big though few have taken notice of the order for 20 Harbin Aircraft Industry Group (HAIG) 19 seat Y-12E and Y-12F unpressurized PT6 powered regional airliners. The aircraft has a lot of sales potential, but it has been totally … Continue reading

In the Global General Aviation Market the Chinese are quietly taking over, step by step, learning the business that one day they just may dominate.

Unless you follow the GA market on a regular basis you probably have noticed that the Chinese are slowly growing in importance on the OEM’s (original equipment manufacturers) side. Textron’s Cessna division, now the owner of long time rival Beechcraft has a very close relationship with Aviation Industry Corp of China (AVIC), which is a … Continue reading