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Aviation Doctor - Helping aviation companies to transform the present into a more profitable tomorrow

I am a Canadian and EU national with an MBA and 33+ years experience in aviation business development with 20 years overseas and work in 30+ countries. A former investment/merchant banker (mergers and acquisitions to corporate turnarounds). airline and OEM senior executive and past owner of 6 successful aviation companies in 3 countries (executive jet charter/management companies, aircraft sales, aircraft broker, airline/aerospace consulting to aircraft insurance). I have a very diverse aviation background with 75+ aviation companies (50+ airlines of all sizes, OEM's, airports, lessors, MRO to service providers) as consultant, executive management, business analyst and business development adviser. Excellent success track record in International Business Development. Most work with airlines is with new start-ups and restructuring of troubled carriers. I sold new business jets, turboprops and helicopters for Cessna, Raytheon, Gulfstream to Eurocopter as an ASR as well as undertaking sales and marketing of commercial aircraft for Boeing, de Havilland, Dornier, Saab and Beechcraft. Brokered everything from LET-410's to B747's and from piston PA31 to G550 business jets. I look beyond the headlines of the aviation news and analyze what the meaning and consequences of the new information really means. There is a story behind each headline that few go beyond. Picked the name Aviation Doctor, as much of my work has been with troubled companies or those that want and need to grow profitably. I fix problems in the business for a better tomorrow. You can reach me with comments or suggestions at: Tomas.Aviation@gmail.com I write a lot of Articles and Posts on LinkedIN: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomas-chlumecky-3200a021/
Aviation Doctor - Helping aviation companies to transform the present into a more profitable tomorrow has written 220 posts for AVIATION DOCTOR: Critical Insights and Analysis, Beyond the Headlines

Sun Country Airlines, the 4th US ULCC few have heard of after Allegiant Air, Spirit Airlines and Frontier Airlines

  https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomas-chlumecky-aviation-doctor-3200a021/   Sun Country: Inside America’s Most Unusual Airline Brian Sumers, Skift – Jan 08, 2019 2:00 am We always hear airlines are a scale business. So can an airline with 30 airplanes and a measured growth plan succeed? We’re not sure, but we’ll be watching. — Brian Sumers After Jude Bricker took over as … Continue reading

Two and a half years after the BVI Airways fiasco, still nothing?

  https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomas-chlumecky-aviation-doctor-3200a021/       Unregistered Company’ bought BVI Airways Owners accused of hatching plan to sneak plane out of BVI July 30th, 2018 http://www.virginislandsnewsonline.com/en/news/unregistered-company-bought-bvi-airways- From left are Scott A. Weisman of BVI Airways, Premier Dr The Hon D. Orlando Smith, Jerry D. Willoughby, the airline’s President and CEO, Bruce F. Bradley of BVI Airways … Continue reading

Herb Kelleher of Southwest Airlines fame died January 3, 2019, he is the father of the short haul low cost carrier (LCC) business model, but Freddie Allen Laker was the father of the long haul low cost carrier (LHLCC) business model, which is just now emerging as a viable business model with his Laker Airways/Skytrain, just not as successful as Southwest Airlines, he died February 6, 2006. These are our pioneers and we owe a great deal to these visionaries today, may they Rest In Peace and always be remembered for their contributions to aviation.

    https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomas-chlumecky-aviation-doctor-3200a021/     Interview: Freddie Allen Laker Aviation Tribune – By Paul Tooher Posted on December 16, 2018   SIR FREDDIE LAKER | SIRFREDDIELAKER.COM It’s only natural that Norwegian Air – UK should have chosen Sir Freddie Laker as one of the first “heroes” to adorn the tail of one of its 787-9 aircraft. After all, … Continue reading

Zimbabwe Airways sold its first and only B777-200ER for dismantling, as it had no money for its heavy maintenance, the dream of having 4 is gone, one sold in the US and status of the $70 million for 4 is also gone, now what happens with 2 State owned airlines? Air Zimbabwe is the national carrier and Zimbabwe Airways is the ZANU-PF airline that was suppose to replace Air Zimbabwe with 4 x B777-200Er and 4-6 ERJ-145’s, another dream gone, now just the nightmare left for struggling, cash starved Air Zimbabwe, just so much BS and what has been achieved? nothing, other than the usual missing millions of $US in another shameful scam in Zimbabwe.

  https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomas-chlumecky-aviation-doctor-3200a021/   ŽIVILĖ ZALAGĖNAITĖ – AeroTime News Hub on 19th December 2018       Earlier this month it became clear that in a best case scenario Zimbabwe Airways will receive only two of the four Boeing 777 aircraft it intended to buy from Malaysia Airlines. The deal began as a government secret and … Continue reading

LIAT non-stop capacity in decline; Barbados is leading airport, service to St. Vincent is top-ranked route

  https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomas-chlumecky-aviation-doctor-3200a021/   ANNA Aero – 25 May 2018   LIAT offered 1.44 million two-way seats across its non-stop network in 2017, 12% down on the previous year. Over the past 10 years the carrier has completely renewed its fleet, phasing out DHC-6 Twin Otters and Q300s and replacing them with ATR 42-600s and ATR 72-600s. … Continue reading

The ACMI business is dominated by the regional segment and is growing fast in Europe

  https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomas-chlumecky-aviation-doctor-3200a021/           04-Dec-2018 11:03 PM   The ACMI business is dominated by the regional segment and is growing fast in Europe The practice of a sizeable airline subcontracting its regional flying to a partner airline is widely known in the United States. Such operations—a form of ACMI flying, where the … Continue reading

Roscosmos (Russia’s Space Agency) successfully launches its Soyuz rocket this morning with Canadian astronaut on board, David Saint-Jacques for a 6 month mission on the International Space Station (ISS). That is the good news, the bad news is that it looks as if Roscosmos is accused of embezzling (aka stealing) $US 10.4 billion in public funds in 2017 alone! Imagine that happening at NASA? but this is Putin’s Russia, a kleptocracy, a government ruled by corrupt politicians who use their political power to receive kickbacks, bribes, and special favours at the expense of the populace.

  https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomas-chlumecky-aviation-doctor-3200a021/         Tomas’s Comment:     A proud day today for Canada as our 9th astronaut David Saint-Jacques successfully blasted off this morning at 6:31 EST on board a Russian Soyuz rocket for a 6-month mission on board the International Space Station (ISS). Without trying to rain on Roscosmos (Russian Space … Continue reading

Here is a Saudi ‘war game’ scenario that demonstrates the peril of a post-Khashoggi period for the US and the Middle East

https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomas-chlumecky-aviation-doctor-3200a021/ Here is a Saudi ‘war game’ scenario that demonstrates the peril of a post-Khashoggi period for the US and the Middle East PUBLISHED SAT, NOV 24 2018 • 7:00 AM EST | UPDATED SAT, NOV 24 2018 • 9:41 AM EST – CNBC https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/23/saudi-war-game-scenario-shows-peril-of-post-khashoggi-peril-for-the-us.html Fred Kempe KEY POINTS A nightmare scenario involving a potential armed showdown … Continue reading

Ethiopian Airlines is and always had been, what the CEO calls a “strategic asset and a policy instrument” for the government. Its key role in logistics is designed to aid the country’s industrialisation. Today, the company is busy exporting its model across Africa, buying stakes in existing airlines in Djibouti, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Eritrea and Equatorial Guinea, as well as setting up new ones in Chad, Ghana, Guinea, Mozambique, Nigeria and Zambia. Not all governments are fully on board with the company’s pan-African vision, a vision which led it to take a key role in pushing for the African Union’s single market for air transport launched earlier this year. “The main challenge is the lack of proper attention given to aviation by African countries,” Tewolde says. “At the policy level, African governments, unintentionally, consider aviation a rich man’s means of transport. They don’t consider it as an essential public service for the average person.”

    https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomas-chlumecky-aviation-doctor-3200a021/     Posted on Friday, 16 November 2018 Tewolde GebreMariam, Chief Executive Officer, Ethiopian Airlines   By Tom Gardner in Addis Ababa     http://www.theafricareport.com/East-Horn-Africa/itv-tewolde-gebremariam-chief-executive-officer-ethiopian-airlines.html   Tomas’s Comment:   There is no doubt that today Ethiopian Airlines is Africa’s dominant airline, the only African Airline that can compete with the likes of Turkish, … Continue reading

Look let’s be real, anything “offshore” today, be it a bank, aircraft or yacht registration and in most cases a corporation, means someone is hiding something from the tax man, assets or income, usually illegal tax evasion and not tax avoidance which is legal. The Isle of Man government approved tax avoidance schemes that have refunded more than $1bn to the super-rich and to multinationals on the import of hundreds of private jets into Europe. The Paradise Papers reveal how Manx customs worked closely with the offshore law firm Appleby and the big four accounting firm EY, to approve schemes which have ultimately helped some of the world’s wealthiest individuals reduce import VAT bills to zero. The arrangements allowed jet owners to claim 100% VAT refunds on the grounds that their jets were part of leasing businesses. What the leak of 6.8m files from the archives of Appleby reveal is that these businesses involved millionaires leasing their own aircraft from themselves, and some of that appears to be illegal for sure.

  https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomas-chlumecky-aviation-doctor-3200a021/     Paradise Papers: Commission follows up on illegal tax breaks for yachts and aircraft Brussels, 8 November 2018 http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-18-6265_en.htm   Abusive VAT practices in the Isle of Man. VAT is only deductible for business use. Supplies of aircraft, including leasing services, meant expressly for private use should not be VAT-exempt. The Commission … Continue reading

A short history of aviation in Ghana

  https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomas-chlumecky-aviation-doctor-3200a021/       November 9, 2018   Tomas’s Comment:   The country has a had a rough time with its 2 national airlines, Ghana Airways from 1958 to 2005 and Ghana International Airlines from 2005 to 2010 and have they learned anything? Ghana Airways has had a long successful history with many different … Continue reading

Bombardier’s turnaround has become and asset sale, $300 million for its DHC-8 line (100/Q200/Q300/Q400) to Longview Aviation Capital/Viking Air, $650 million for its Business Aircraft training business to CAE, $561 million for Downsview Airport and factory, so $1.5 billion in asset sales as it lays of another 5,000 employees. I said for years, the CSeries, Q400 and CRJ were heading off the cliff, the realization came this year, as they dumped the CSeries on Airbus, giving away 50.01% for Free, paid $609M so far in costs, kept 33.55% and gave Quebec just 16.44% for its $1.0 billion bailout in 2015. As well, Bombardier will provide a maximum $925M in loss guarantees to CSALP to 2021 and a final assembly line in Alabama? In the end all A220 assembly will go to the US. As for Q400 and the CRJ, they are “walking dead” programs, like the A380 and B747-8i, the Q400 has 66 in backlog, 32 orders this year, I count 21 orders, either way only 9 delivered in 9 months, 1.0 per month seriously? so 66 months to deliver all 66 in backlog? CRJ has 56 in backlog orders, yet only 14 delivered in 9 months, just 1.5 per month? The program lives of US regional airline orders, as the pilot scope clause allows only the CRJ900 and E175, so hate it or not, you order the CRJ900, but E175 has had 80% of US orders the past few years, and when the MRJ and E175-E2 enter the market, its all over for the CRJ program.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomas-chlumecky-aviation-doctor-3200a021/   Bombardier is on its way out of the Commercial Aircraft Business, it has crewed up royally, it went into the CSeries program blinded by marketing myopia and BS about the market, its forecasts were “fantasies” that went against all reality on the ground, it let ATR beat the Q400 and the CRJ was … Continue reading

“We are open to offers for new airline”​? Ghana’s Aviation Minister Joseph Kofi Adda. Is Ghana ready for a third attempt at a national carrier?

  https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomas-chlumecky-aviation-doctor-3200a021/       Business News of Monday, 15 October 2018 – thebftonline.com   Tomas’s Comment:   The country has a had a rough time with its 2 national airlines, Ghana Airways from 1958 to 2005 and Ghana International Airlines 2005 to 2010 and have they learned anything? Ghana Airways has had a long … Continue reading

The Russians don’t do well with their commercial aircraft, the SSJ100 will never be a commercial success, and neither were the IL-96/86, TU-154, TU-134 or YAK-42. The new MC-21 looks real good, but its sales will like the SSJ100 be limited to basically Russia and the CIS. Now, where the Russians are very good is jet fighters, SU-30/35 and the new SU-57 and helicopters, and this is a segment Russian Helicopters has been doing real well in, with $3.2 billion in revenue in 2016 and a $610 million operating profit. Now, Abu Dhabi based Mubadala is part owner in Russian Helicopters, shows there is value in the company. The new Mi-38 from Russia looks real good and a market exists but not in North America or Europe yet, but maybe in time. One market Russia has not gone after successfully is the amphibious jet from Beriev, the Be-200, that is a “game changer” if there is one today in commercial aviation. The time is right in my opinion to bring back larger commercial amphibious aircraft bigger than the Viking Air DHC-6 Series 400, like a 30 passenger CL-415 and the 72 seat Be-200, but few see the light, but its there, just needs to be promoted, nurtured, marketed and demonstrated, but Russians have done no business development with it, beyond water bomber and SAR, needs new ideas and people to make the Be-200 a commercial success.

  https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomas-chlumecky-aviation-doctor-3200a021/     Thursday October 25, 2018 / Stanislav Golubev/Russian Aviation   Mi-38 belongs to the niche of medium helicopters according to the classification of the Russian market. Today I will tell you about our modern corporate helicopter – the Very-VIP category Mi-38. Why VVIP, and not just VIP? Because there are very few … Continue reading

Primera Air fails to secure long term financing and shuts down, but was its collapse inevitable? Its product positioning was vague, LCC or Full Service, point to point with no feed, small 7 aircraft fleet (5 x A321neo and 2 x B737-800, plus 2 x A321LR and 18 x B737-9 on order) of its own, late aircraft deliveries, unexpected maintenance and then too many ACMI leases and starting too many long haul routes at once sealed its inevitability?

  https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomas-chlumecky-aviation-doctor-3200a021/         Primera Air blames ‘several unforeseen misfortunate events’ for its collapse, but did it take a risk too many in entering the competitive trans-Atlantic market?   October 3, 2018 – CAPA The European carrier Primera Air surprised everybody when it burst into the trans-Atlantic market earlier this year. After over … Continue reading

BOC Aviation says 301 airline failures this decade and rising, 2 per month and 90% were <20 aircraft operators that did not reach "critical mass"​

https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomas-chlumecky-aviation-doctor-3200a021/     October 25, 2018     Tomas’s Comment:     These comments from BOC Aviation’s MD & CEO Robert Martin, confirm what we are seeing, and that is shake out of small weak carriers just cannot compete effectively with small fleets, usually high debts and little equity or ability to raise more cash. … Continue reading

For decades LIAT has struggled under heavy airport fees, taxes, poor management and politicians with no “balls” to make tough decisions. The airline has a monopoly on most of its network, but still burns cash year after year, and yet politicians just talk and talk about what is bad and what is good but nothing ever changes. The losers are the good people of the Eastern Caribbean, who are “stuck” with high fares and airport fees, unreliable air service and they have chosen NOT to fly, with LIAT passenger count down to around 800,000 yet 10 years ago 2 million were carried when LIAT had competition from Caribbean Star. That shows that the demand is there but supply is too expensive, unreliable and mistrusted, its time for LIAT to Swim of Sink and be ready to open the EC to competition, state aid is not working.

  https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomas-chlumecky-aviation-doctor-3200a021/   PM Gonsalves Says There Are Weaknesses And Limitations With LIAT? Off Course, there are, it is why its burning taxpayers’ money for 2 generations!   October 23, 2018 – Antigua News Room     Tomas’s Comment:   For decades LIAT has struggled under heavy airport fees, taxes, poor management and a poor Board … Continue reading

The world is now seeing the evil that is the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, a nation that got away with knowing about 9-11, support of Taliban and IS and bullying of Qatar to follow the Saudi line. Then in Yemen we see the bombings of school buses, schools, hospitals, wedding, funerals, and the us eof food as a weapon, so now 13 million face starvation. Its time for we in the West to stand up to these spoiled Royals who have used money to get their way for too long. We don’t need their oil, they need food imports, and we can hurt them more than they can hurt us. For too long the murderous medieval Kingdom has bought our politicians, lobbyists and PR firms with petro dollars to hide the evil that lies in Saudi Arabia, Wahhabism and their Jihadists. With Saudi money they bought the West to rescue them in 1991 from Saddam Hussein, our men and women died for those savages? and gain in Aghnsitan putting down the Taliban? then again fighting ISIS? and now they want us to fight Iran for them, may they go to hell and see Allah! Let them fight the Iranians and see what death and destruction war bring, its time they experienced it. Do not let them buy our men and women for another war, let them die alone, they can’t even beat the Houthi tribesmen in 4 years in Yemen with the best equipped military in the world, they are useless cowards beating up a small nation.

      Mohammed bin Salman: The dark side of Saudi Arabia’s crown prince   Touted as Saudi Arabia’s progressive reformer, Mohammed bin Salman has an ominous human rights record.   Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto leader of the kingdom, has been on a quick rise to power [Cliff Owen/AP] The disappearance of Saudi … Continue reading

Scandal filled Korean Air Lines (KAL) Chairman and CEO Cho Yang-ho has been charged with embezzlement, tax evasion and breach of trust, for $17.4 million in “brokered” deals for aircraft (A220-300?) and inflight good and $134 million in medical benefits from National Health Insurance by running a pharmacy without a license. His misbehaved daughters have become infamous for their anger management issues with Korean Air staff, and now Korean Air Lines’s LCC Jin Air (22 x B737-800 and 4 x B777-200ER) may lose its Air Operator’s Certificate (AOC) due to the fallout from an alleged incident involving the daughter of the airlines’ controlling family, who served on the budget carrier’s board of directors for six years despite being ineligible for the post, a government investigation has discovered. Just a bad example of the disgusting behaviour of the rich in Korea, time to put more into jail and clean up the corruption in Korea! it has become a disgrace on the nation.

  https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomas-chlumecky-aviation-doctor-3200a021/     RŪTA BURBAITĖ –  on 15th October 2018 – Aerotime News Hub   Korean Air: from raging heiresses to chief’s embezzlement probe   Another scandal hits the largest airline and flag carrier of South Korea, and this time it involves the man at the top. Korean Air Lines Chairman and CEO, Cho … Continue reading

Airline business models that failed though they were very unique and had its fans, but for various reasons they were not sustainable in the long term, and never copied by anyone else again!

  https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomas-chlumecky-aviation-doctor-3200a021/   6 DEFUNCT AIRLINES THAT WERE DOOMED FROM THE START  By DAVE BALDWINPublished On 01/07/2014 Assuming it isn’t already circled on your new 2014 Divas of WWE wall calendar, tomorrow marks the eighth anniversary of Hooters Air calling it quits — a moment of silence, please. Before you cry into your plate of wings though, we … Continue reading