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Airline Management, Bombardier, Regional Aircraft, Regional Airlines, State Owned Airlines

After 8+ years, the Sukhoi SSJ100 program still struggles with just 125 in service, now launching their new 75 seat SSJ75 to take on the E175-E2, MRJ90 and CRJ900, while a SSJ130 is in the works with 115 seats to take on the E190-E2 and the CS100? just can’t compete as latest orders from small & weak, sanctioned or Russian airlines shows (Aero Mongolia, S7, Iran Air Tours and Aseman Airlines)

SEE:  https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomas-chlumecky-3200a021/

READ: Several previous articles on this site on the Sukhoi SuperJet

Sukhoi SuperJet from Russia, with hope

CAPA- June 19, 2018

 

Tomas’s Comment:

Since now 86 months since the 1st SSJ100 was delivered to launch customer Armavia (Armenia) which took 1 of 2 on order on April 21, 2011 and went bust March 29, 2013, that was their launch customer?

Since then, things have not gone well either, 125 deliveries in the past 86 months (1.45 per month) is a money-losing production rate, even worst than Bombardier’s 2.2 per month CRJ production rate in 2017.

The 87 to 108 passenger $36.6 million list priced SSJ100-95LR is not a bad aircraft, but it’s not a good aircraft, and today it is outclassed by the new E175-E2 and E190-E2’s and the MRJ90.

It is now going up against the E175-E1/E2 and CRJ900 with its 75 seat SSJ75, which is just foolish, that segment is very artificial, the big market is the US market because of its arbitrary pilot scope clause that limits regional airline partners of US major airlines to fly nothing bigger than a 76 passenger regional jet with a max. MTOW of 86,000 lbs, and then the number of aircraft is limited, around the world there are very few 70-80 seat regional jets in operation, the economics of a E190/195 are much better of course.

The SSJ100 was to open the way to international markets for the new MC-21, well, it has just 2 commercial operators in the West, Interjet of Mexico and CityJet (Ireland) which receive massive discounts greater than even Bombardier’s 72% off list price to DAL for 75 x CS100’s, which are 41% below cost, Sukhoi did the same, and it produced +/- 40 orders from Interjet and CityJet but nothing from a Western airline since!

Its relegated to Russia and ex-Soviet Republics and small, financially weak airlines from developing countries that can’t get a EJet or a CRJ, like in Laos or Mongolia.

The failure of the SSJ100 should be a warning to Russia that its MC-21 will also fail commercially, the market will not risk buying Russian aircraft for the lack of support, remarketing potential and political risk with continued ‘cold war’ meddling, arguments and sanctions going back and forth.

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In late Apr-2018 S7 Airlines signed a letter of intent to buy 50 Sukhoi SuperJets, with options over a further 25. The order is for the as yet undeveloped 75 seat SSJ-75, the smallest variant of the SuperJet family, with a target entry into service in 2022.

The 100-seat Sukhoi SuperJet conducted its maiden flight on 19-May-2009 and entered service in 2011 (although the launch customer Armavia subsequently withdrew its single aircraft from service). The first delivery to an operator outside Russia was to the Mexican LCC Interjet in 2013, and the first delivery to Western Europe was to CityJet in 2016.

The SuperJet competes with Bombardier’s CSeries and Embraer’s E-Jet, but targets the lower end of the size range for new technology regional jets. SSJ variants will offer 75-100 seats, whereas the CSeries is in the 100-130 seat range and the E-Jet will be in the 80-140 seat range. (The SSJ size range also mainly avoids direct competition with the lower end of the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 families).

Built by the Sukhoi Civil Aircraft Company, which is part of Russia’s majority state-owned United Aircraft Corporation, the SSJ is rare in being a Russian-built aircraft operating within Western markets. SCAC is now hopeful of securing more orders in Europe, with interest reportedly high in the Balkan region.
This report presents details of the Sukhoi SuperJet’s installed fleet and order book.

Summary:

• There are 125 Sukhoi SSJs in service and 175 on order. 78% of the fleet in service is with Russian operators.
• Aeroflot is the biggest current operator. S7 has the biggest order, for the SSJ-75 that is still to be developed.
• CityJet and Interjet are important to the SSJ’s international profile.

According to the CAPA Fleet Database, there are 125 Sukhoi SSJs in service and 175 on order (this includes 92 unconfirmed orders).

There have till today been 129 deliveries, though not all in service, at one point 2 years back there were 30 “white tails” parked with nowhere to go, till the Russian state leasing companies ‘pushed’ the aircraft on local operators, to save the program. They claim 378 orders but that is just BUNK, look at the deliveries, you think if they had 249 orders or even 175 orders in backlog they would produce just 30 aircraft per year?

 

The aircraft is hard to sell, so the state leasing companies ‘help’ with very cheap lease rates and terms, yo move the aircraft locally.

The most popular variant, both in service and on order, is the SSJ RRJ-95B (89 in service and 68 on order).
The -95B has up to 100 seats, while the longer range -95LR has up to 103 seats in a single cabin configuration

Sukhoi’s newest variant to be offered is the 75 seat SSJ RRJ-75, the development of which was announced in Feb-2018. It is to be aimed at regional routes of 1,500km to 2,000km. There is no confirmed delivery date for the smallest variant, but it is expected to enter service in 2022.

S7 Airlines’ intended 50 aircraft order and options for a further 25 RRJ-75s also involves its participation in the aircraft’s development. Sukhoi estimates the market potential for the new variant at 200 to 300 aircraft in Russia and up to 3,000 internationally.

Aeroflot is the biggest SSJ operator currently; 78% of its fleet is with Russian operators.

The 125 SuperJets currently in service are deployed by 15 operators, according to the CAPA Fleet Database. A large majority of this fleet, 78%, is operated by Russian operators.

 

Russia’s leading airline, Aeroflot, has the largest SSJ fleet, with 43 (all -95B variants) in service, followed by Interjet, which has 20 (also -95Bs).

The Russian carriers Yamal Airlines and Gazpromavia are the only other operators with SSJ fleets in double-digit quantities (15 and 10 respectively). There are a further nine Russian operators, making 12 in total. Other than Interjet, the other non-Russian SSJ operators are Ireland’s CityJet, which has six -95Bs, and the Royal Thai Air Force, which has two -95Bs.
Sukhoi SuperJets in service by the operator at 12-Jun-2018

S7’s (unconfirmed) order for 50 SSJ-75s puts it at the top of the ranking of SuperJet orders, which comprises 11 operators and three lessors (with no identified operator).
Of the 14 entities that have outstanding SuperJet orders, eight are Russian and six are from other countries.

Two Iranian operators, Iran Air Tours and Iran Aseman Airlines, each have preliminary agreements to buy 20 SSJ-95LR aircraft, making them the most significant non-Russian organizations ranked by outstanding SuperJet orders (if confirmed). The return of US sanctions on Iran may boost the prospects of Iranian orders for the Sukhoi equipment, although questions have been raised within Iran about the reliability of Russian aircraft.

CityJet has nine outstanding orders, one more than Interjet. These two are important to the SuperJet’s prospects in international markets. Among the remaining orders, the only others by non-Russian operators are Aero Mongolia’s two -95LRs and the Royal Thai Air Force’s one remaining -95B.

In addition to the orders summarised in the chart below, there are options for a further 69 SSJs (25 with S7, 16 with CityJet and 28 with lessors).
Sukhoi SuperJets on order at 12-Jun-2018

Out of the 125 aircraft in service, 79 are owned by four Russian lessors (63% of the total).

State Transport Leasing Company, owned by the Russian Federation, has 33 SuperJets (15 with Yamal, eight with Azimut, seven with IrAero and three with Yakutia); Vnesheconombank has 24 (23 with Aeroflot and one with Buryat Airlines); Sberbank Leasing has 20 (all with Aeroflot); and VEB Leasing has two (both leased to Yakutia).

Lessors account for 33% of SSJ orders.

A smaller proportion of the 175 SuperJets on order have been placed by lessors. There are outstanding orders for 57 aircraft (33% of the total) with three Russian lessors. The majority of these 57 aircraft (42 of them) currently have no identified operator.

State Transport Leasing Company has 27 orders with no identified operator (plus two for Yakutia Airlines), while Ilyushin Finance Company has 14 (plus six for Severstal Aircompany) and Vnesheconombank has one (plus seven for Aeroflot).

CityJet placed its SSJ order in 2015 with a view to replacing its ageing BAE146 fleet. It now has a fleet of six SSJ-95Bs in service, with nine more on order. The first European customer for the Superjet outside Russia, CityJet took its first delivery in summer 2016.

When CityJet announced the Superjet order in Oct-2015, it intended to deploy it on its London City network once operational approval had been received for the aircraft at this airport.
Pending modifications to the aircraft by Sukhoi to allow for City’s steep approach (expected in 2019), CityJet is wet leasing half of its six SuperJets to Brussels Airlines and deploying the remaining three on its own network away from London City.

The Irish regional airline is operating Brussels Airlines services to Billund, Birmingham, Bologna, Edinburgh, Figari, Gothenburg, Hannover, Manchester, Milan Malpensa, Nantes, Prague, Stockholm, Venice, Vienna and Zadar (source: OAG).

This is consistent with CityJet’s strategic shift towards third-party operations (it also operates for Air France and SAS, using other aircraft types).
The SuperJet’s operation by CityJet in a number of major European cities is important in raising its profile outside Russia. In addition to its SSJs in service and on order, CityJet also has options for a further 16. If it were to exercise all of its options, this would take it above Mexico’s Interjet as the most important non-Russian operator of the SuperJet, with a total of 31.

Interjet has 20 SSJ-95Bs in service, two in storage and eight on order, giving a total of 30 aircraft. Only S7 (50 orders and 25 options for the SSJ-75) and Aeroflot (43 -95Bs in service and seven on order) would have more than these two non-Russian operators. Interjet mainly uses its SSJ fleet on domestic routes, so that it plays a lesser part in raising the aircraft’s profile compared with CityJet’s operations in Europe (but Interjet does deploy the SuperJet on routes to Cuba and to the US cities of Houston and San Antonio from Monterrey).

The SSJ had a head start on the CSeries and the E-Jet. The SSJ has been in service since 2011, whereas the CSeries entered service in 2016 and the E-Jet only began operation in Apr-2018 (with the Norwegian regional airline Widerøe).

However, in spite of its long period of availability, the SSJ is underselling these competitors even when its sold with super “sweet deals”.

Interjet’s chief executive Jose Luis Garza had previously acknowledged engine issues on the airline’s SSJ100s, saying that the PowerJet SaM146 powerplants require additional ground maintenance. However, he downplayed the issues in November 2017, characterizing the engine issues as more of a “nuisance” than a serious concern.

” CEO Garza then referred to the aircraft as a “money-making machine”, pointing out that the airline had negotiated a “sweet deal” for its SSJ100 order, with the capital cost of 10 aircraft about equal with the pre-delivery payment for one Airbus A320 – the other type that Interjet operates”.

Adding the 125 SSJs in service to the 175 on order gives a total of 300 aircraft for the Sukhoi SuperJet to date. This compares with 311 for the E-Jet (309 orders and two in service) and a total of 439 CSeries aircraft (399 on order and 40 in service).

In selling to CityJet and Interjet, Sukhoi Civil Aircraft Company has made important breakthroughs in the international markets for the SuperJet.
For its newest variant, the SSJ-75, it achieved a significant early customer in the form of S7.

Nevertheless, it will need to find a major non-Russian order if it is to fulfill its hoped-for 3,000 international orders.

 

 

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About Aviation Doctor - Helping aviation companies to transform the present into a more profitable tomorrow

I am a Canadian and EU national with an MBA and 33+ years experience in aviation business development with 20 years overseas and work in 30+ countries. A former investment/merchant banker (mergers and acquisitions to corporate turnarounds). airline and OEM senior executive and past owner of 6 successful aviation companies in 3 countries (executive jet charter/management companies, aircraft sales, aircraft broker, airline/aerospace consulting to aircraft insurance). I have a very diverse aviation background with 75+ aviation companies (50+ airlines of all sizes, OEM's, airports, lessors, MRO to service providers) as consultant, executive management, business analyst and business development adviser. Excellent success track record in International Business Development. Most work with airlines is with new start-ups and restructuring of troubled carriers. I sold new business jets, turboprops and helicopters for Cessna, Raytheon, Gulfstream to Eurocopter as an ASR as well as undertaking sales and marketing of commercial aircraft for Boeing, de Havilland, Dornier, Saab and Beechcraft. Brokered everything from LET-410's to B747's and from piston PA31 to G550 business jets. I look beyond the headlines of the aviation news and analyze what the meaning and consequences of the new information really means. There is a story behind each headline that few go beyond. Picked the name Aviation Doctor, as much of my work has been with troubled companies or those that want and need to grow profitably. I fix problems in the business for a better tomorrow. You can reach me with comments or suggestions at: Tomas.Aviation@gmail.com I write a lot of Articles and Posts on LinkedIN: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomas-chlumecky-3200a021/

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