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SUMMARY: Bombardier’s on going 5 Year Transformation Plan looks to $25 billion in Revenue by 2020 (+53% on 2016 Revenue of $16.33 billion which is down 18.8% or $3.8 billion since 2014), with $15 billion (60%) to come from Aerospace, Commercial Aircraft (BCA to $5 billion + 129% on 2016) and Business Aircraft (BBA to $9 billion +54% on 2016). I look at how realistic that is given the CSeries poor sales after 8+ years (320) and several old, tired and dying programs that need to be culled, from the Q400, Learjets to the 1970’s designed CL-600 Challenger and its evolutionary cousins the CRJ, G5000/6000 (BBA’s once “cash cow”) and new G7000 line. My take is that Bombardier will fall short by at least $6.5 billion on its Commercial and Business Aircraft goals, as realistically by 2020 all Bombardier will have to sell in Aerospace is its CSeries, the new Global 7000/8000 business jets and the Challenger 350. At the same time all of its products are going to face lot more competition from Airbus, Boeing, Comac (China), Irkut (Russia) and Embraer on the Commercial Aircraft side as the ‘duopoly’ turns into 5 competitors, with Bombardier the weak “5th Wheel”, while Business Aircraft (BBA) is facing new competing aircraft from Gulfstream (G500/600), Dassault (Falcon 5X/8X) and Textron (Longitude/Hemisphere). Bombardier is also facing a ‘perfect storm’ of tougher global market, economic and political forces that will challenge Bombardier’s on going struggle to become financially viable without taxpayers Government money. Empowered by ‘state aid’ the company is now arrogant enough to launch another new aircraft program, as Sweden is investigating serious bribery charges against the company and the top 5 Bombardier executives get almost 49% pay increase for what I do not know ? yet 14,500 employees are being laid off, and the “gong show” at Bombardier continues.

READ MORE ON BOMBARDIER on this Blog just go to ‘Categories’ and click on Bombardier https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomas-chlumecky-3200a021/recent-activity/posts/ ———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————– Bombardier Inc. released its 2016 Annual Report last month and while the company had Revenues of $US 16.339 billion in 2016 (down 18.7% on Revenue of $20.111 billion in 2014) and recorded a Net Loss of $981 million … Continue reading

UPDATE: The Czech Republic’s 10-14 seat twin engine turboprop utility, the Evektor EV-55 Outback has been put on hold. Ever since its first flight in June, 2011 the program never had the money to move forward to certification and production, and the $200 million Malaysian investment by former P.M. Dr. Mahatir bin Mohamad never materialized and was in short, a sad “joke’. This is what happens when you have a good performing and well positioned product, but you cannot sell it to investors, because you do not understand what investors want to see and hear. This turboprop General Aviation market is tough business and small companies struggle to compete even after certification and production (PAC 750XStol, Piaggio Aero P.160 Avanti) and then there are those that take years to get certified and still face an uncertain future (Epic 1000, Mahindra Aerospace GA-10, Dornier Seastar/Seawings, Caiga AG 3000, etc.), this program sadly cannot and may not get to the starting gate, and join other programs from the Czech Republic that made it to prototype stage but never into production (LET-610G, Ibis Ae-270, Wolfsburg 270, VUT-100 Super Cobra, Ayres LM-200 Loadmaster, Z-400 Rhino) and now the Czech General Aviation industry faces total collapse, barring production of small 2 seat light sport aircraft (LSA’s).

READ: BLOG Article of March 9, 2017 on the 2016 General Aviation turboprop market   Evektor’sĀ Press ReleaseĀ – numerous media today: 16. 3. 2017 It is our obligation to inform you that Evektor has temporarily put the EV-55 project on hold until some uncertainties have been solved with our Malaysian investor. In any case, to secure … Continue reading

SUMMARY: The 2016 General Aviation turboprop deliveries and sales numbers are out from GAMA, and the turboprops were the only segment to record an increase in deliveries (+3.4%), as piston (-4.9%) and especially business jets (-7.9%) are down on 2015 numbers. With 576 turboprop aircraft delivered (and 675 engines, all PT6’s except 10 GE H80 engines) with a sales value of $US 2.057 billion (+8.6%), 2016 was a good year for 3 of the 4 segments (Agricultural, Single engine utility, Single engine pressurized) with Twin turboprop deliveries slightly down (-9.1%). In terms of units, the best segment was the Single engine pressurized with 179 deliveries led by Pilatus with 91 deliveries of its PC-12NG, but new competition is coming soon from Textron’s Denali and EPIC 1000. By sales, the best segment was the Twin Turboprop market, which is dominated by Textron’s King Air (C90/250/350) line with $793 million in sales. While not in GAMA figures, the 5 OEM’s still in the 19 passenger turboprop market, delivered +/- 35 aircraft worth $US 255 million. Lastly, the Agricultural aircraft market is still doing well, with 151 deliveries worth $198 million from crop spraying, fire fighting to actual counter insurgency (COIN) fighting, showing how versatile the turboprops really are today and why we see GE now challenging the P&W PT6 domination of the market for over 50 years.

READ: 2015 GA turboprop results, February 17, 2016 blog. https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomas-chlumecky-3200a021/recent-activity/ Another year has passed and time to do my annual turboprop review. The 2016 GAMA shipment and billing numbers were not good for the industry, with overall billings down from $US 24.1 billion in 2015 to $US 20.7 billion, down 14.1% while unit deliveries were … Continue reading