Bombardier has now delivered its first CS100 to Swiss and CS300 to airBaltic and talks confidently of a turnaround next year and a bright future in 2020 as per its 5 year Transformation Plan, that should see company become a $US 25 billion a year company by the end of 2020, with Aerospace to provide $15 billion of that (60%), unfortunately, that will NOT happen, as Aerospace will be down to 2 main products by 2020, the CSeries (Commercial) and the Global G7000 (Business Jets) (both in Photos below), and together, at best $8 billion in revenue, so $17 billion in revenue for all of Bombardier by 2020 is more realistic ($16.5 billion today), as Aerospace is going to disappoint.
The whole Bombardier Aerospace business by 2020 will be 90% driven by the CSeries and Global G7000 (below), there lies the future success or failure of Bombardier ! Can those 2 products generate $15 billion (60%) of the planned $25 billion in revenue ? highly unlikely as each product has its own HUGE challenges to overcome.
It all sounds good, they are reducing costs with 21,450 announced layoffs since January 2014 in 6 waves, with the 2 biggest waves announced this year, with 7,000 announced on February 17, 2016 the same day they announced a $5.3 billion loss for 2015 and topped with a cherry with a order from Canada’s national flag carrier Air Canada for 45 x CS300’s, and the second on October 21, 2016 for another 7,500 employees to go while more work is outsourced overseas, and they want more Federal government money, which a French Canadian PM like Trudeau will off course give them.
I should point out that the Government of Canada was to give Bombardier $262 million to launch the CSeries, Quebec was to give $87 million and the UK government was to give $340 million for development of wings, engine nacelles and composite empennage structures in Belfast, in total $689 million, repayable on a royalty basis per aircraft ?
I say “was to give”, because here in Canada it is a “state secret” as to how much our Federal Government has provided to Bombardier over the years on top the $220 million “giveaway” price for Canadair (Challenger business jet and all CRJ’s, +4,000 deliveries) and de Havilland (all DHC-8’s and Q400, +1,200 deliveries), worth +/- $85 billion in sales over the past 30 years.
The 2020 Transformation Plan target of $25 billion requires that Bombardier Commercial Aircraft grow to more than $5.0 billion in revenue which will require a 100% increase from the expected $2.5 billion this year (currently at $1.918 billion after 9 months), which is a bold plan, as by 2020 there will be NO CRJ or Q400 production, so the plan will need the Cseries which till now has been a sales disaster, with only 360 firm orders, (40 of which are for Republic Airways, now in Chapter 11, and for PR reasons they “agreed” to defer those orders, but they have no use at Republic Airways, currently capped at 76 max seats per regional jet under its pilot scope clauses).
So, Bombardier today has at BEST 320 real orders (still 28 x CS100’s and 58 x CS300’s are “highly questionable, or 27% of current orders). Presently, of the 320 orders, 125 (39% of orders) are for the 108-133 passenger CS-100, and 195 (61% of orders) for the 130-150 passenger CS-300. This noteworthy from the fact that the 2 models face different competitors, as the CS-100 faces Embraer (E190/195) and eventually the stretched Sukhoi SSJ-130 so a less competitive segment.
Meanwhile the CS-300 faces Airbus (A319neo and 320neo), Boeing (B737Max7 and Max8) and in the next 3 years China’s COMAC C919 and the Russian Irkut MC-21, and that is going to unleash some serious competition between the 5 OEM’s, and no doubt Bombardier will get killed in that battle, it just cannot compete in the BIG league where the competition is huge, has lots of market power and lots of political backing and government support.
The CS500 is a possibility, but it will not be able to compete with the other 4 OEM’s, its best chance is the CS-100 against Embraer and Sukhoi, yet the demand in that 100-125 seat segment is miserable to say the least, as 3 players for a a few dozen annual orders is a recipe for disaster for all.
Bombardier “hopes” it will generate $5.0 billion from CSeries sales, yet given the massive discounting going on the single aisle market today by Airbus, Boeing, Embraer and Bombardier, where Bombardier is doing deals well below cost with Delta Air Lines and Air Canada, the net prices have been around $29 million on the CSeries for Delta (List Price $76.5 million or 69% off), a loss of around $7 million per unit.
At $5.0 billion it means Bombardier would have to sell its planned 2020 CSeries production of 90-120 units between $41 million to $55 million per unit to reach the target of $5.0 billion, and by 2020 it won’t get that price, by then the market will have 2 new entries, the Chinese Comac C919 airliner and the Russian Irkut MC-21 airliner taking on the Airbus A320neo and the Boeing B737Max line, in a 5 way battle where Bombardier cannot compete on price and delivery.
The whole turnaround of Aerospace is now riding on the future of the slow selling and very troubled CSeries program, that is struggling for every order, and even though Bombardier says it is “selective” about its customers, the recent order for 2 x CS300’s by Air Tanzania shows how “desperate” Bombardier is if it is truly “selective”as that airline at the beginning of the year had one DHC-8-300 for domestic routes, a money losing national airline since 1997, where corruption is infamous to anyone who has worked in Africa.
This year, Bombardier has so far (1st 9 months) delivered 1 x CRJ700, 32 x CRJ900’s, 5 x CRJ100’s, 2 x CS100’s and 23 x Q400’s for a revenue of $1.918 billion for the 63 delivered aircraft (38 CRJ’s), based on published list prices it should be $2.663 billion, so we have an average discount of 28% on commercial aircraft, not bad when compared to the CSeries where this year deals were down at +/- 69% off list price for Delta Air Lines and Air Canada.
The CRJ line is (as of Sept 30, 2016) down to 60 orders in backlog (20 are questionable CRJ1000’s for Air Nostrum, now leasing 4 CRJ1000’s from newly formed Chorus Aviation Capital), and at current production of 4.2 per month, that is only 14 months of production left before depletion of current orders, so by December 31, 2017 the backlog should be at zero, and the program terminated.
Now, they may get a few orders over the next 12 months, so that for every 4 new orders, the production line can be open another 1 month, but no matter what, the CRJ line is finished by the end of 2018, as the CR1000 and CRJ700’s are “walking dead” as I write and only the CRJ900 has any appeal. Meanwhile Embraer, has delivered 76 EJets in the first 9 months of this year (64 x E175’s, 8 x E190’s and 4 E195’s), once again showing the dominance of the EJets today versus the CRJ line.
As of September 31, 2016 Embraer has delivered 1,267 EJets (190 x E170’s, 395 x E175’s, 531 x E190 and only 151 x E195’s), with 207 Ejets in backlog and another 272 E2’s on order versus only 60 CRJ’s in backlog (20 x CRJ1000’s, 31 x CRJ900’s and 9 x CRJ-700’s), orders say novels about what airlines really want and need, no matter what an OEM says, orders speak louder than anything else. By comparison, Bombardier has delivered 788 CRJ’s over 70 seats (343 CRJ-700’s, 397 x CRJ-900’s and only 48 x CRJ-1000’s).
It is worth noting, that the worst performing models for Embraer and Bombardier, are the 100+ seat models with only 48 delivered CRJ1000’s and 151 delivered E195’s, again says novels about the 100-150 seat market that I have always said, was going to finish off the CSeries, as the demand is very low and has been for 10 years now, as airlines moved to larger models.
This issue can be seen with Airbus and Boeing as well, as currently Airbus has only 58 x A319neo’s (1.2% of A320neo line) on order out of a total of 4,778 neo’s ordered.
Boeing has only 60 x Max7’s on order, even though they have stretched the Max7 by 2 rows for an extra 12 seats, and yet only 1.8% of all 3,346 B737Max orders.
Anyway, it must just drive Bombardier crazy, seeing the huge order backlog of A320neo’s (4,778 as of Dec 31/2016), while the Boeing B737Max has 3,346, and there are still 661 A320ceo’s in the order backlog and 897 B737NG’s, and Bombardier has only 320 orders ? and it started selling 8.5 years ago 2 years ahead of Airbus ? It says NOVELS about the 100-150 seat market, which I cover below and have pointed to for years as the “black hole” for commercial jet airliners, filled with many failed programs.
I have NO idea where Bombardier came out with 7,000 deliveries in 20 years in the 100-150 seat market, right now its been in the +50 units per year, only 15% of what they predicted, which again says NOVELS about myopia at Bombardier, believing their own marketing and PR propaganda, but time to wake up and smell the roses.
The 100-150 seat deliveries this year will again be in the 50-55 unit range, raising serious doubts about any aircraft in this segment (E195E-2, Sukhoi SSJ-120, CS100, CS300, A319neo and B737Max), with so little demand and so little margin (if any) to make money with, surely Bombardier now knows its forecast of 7,000 deliveries over 20 years in this segment are just plain WRONG.
Recent Flightglobal Ascend forecast only 1,343 deliveries by Bombardier CSeries over the next 20 years, yes 67 per year (5% of the single aisle market over the next 20 years), with the C919 at 4% (1,074 deliveries), Russia’s MC-21 at 3% (805 deliveries), Airbus with 45% (12,087 deliveries) and Boeing with 43% (11,550 deliveries), so what is the future of the CSeries as a niche aircraft between 4 giants and small home market ?.
The C919 is expected to “win” 80% of the deliveries in China, and the Russian MC-21 is expected to “win” 60% of the deliveries in Russia, very small light at the end of the tunnel for the CSeries, they just got it all wrong, top arrogant to see and expect the reactions of Airbus and Boeing to just re-engine their A320/B737 lines with new technology engines and “check mate” the Quebecois company before it even got started. Canada doe snot have a big domestic market unlike Chinese, Russians, Americans and the EU.
Today, Bombardier’s 320 orders versus 8,155 orders (25 to 1) for the A320neo line and B737Max line again says novels about what airlines really want and don’t want, and few are taking the “game changer” CSeries, unless Bombardier drops the price below cost (eg. Delta Air Lines and Air Canada in 2016), and then any aircraft is “attractive” but it won’t make you money, and hence, Bombardier seeks government bail out again and again, because the situation will only get worst with 5 competitors by 2020.
Only 19 CRJ’s have been ordered this year (all CRJ900’s) so far (book to bill of 0.5), and only 18 Q400’s orders (saved by Canada’s WestJet Encore, Chorus Aviation and Porter Airlines) for a book to bill of 0.78, as that program is down to 34 orders in backlog (as of Sept 31, 2016), but has received an order for 5 from PAL and 1 from Air Tanzania, good for 2.5 months of production (March, 2018), but it too will have to shutdown by late 2018 with out much more orders or scaled back production, though the current 2.5 per month is too low already for it to be economically efficient and viable.
As can be seen in the graph below, the CRJ hit its sales peak in 2007, and is now down 4 years, and production today is up to 4.2 per month to deliver the remaining 60 CRJ’s on order as of Sept. 30, 2016 (9 x CRJ-700’s, 31 x CRJ-900’s and 20 x CRJ-1000’s) with 38 delivered in the first 9 months and only 19 orders (all CRJ-900, of which 10 are for Canada’s Chorus Aviation or 50%).
The prospect of a large number of new orders is minimal, in fact 20 of the 60 are CRJ-1000’s for Air Nostrum, which has received 15 of 35 it ordered, but now leasing 4 CRJ-1000’s from Chorus Aviation’s new leasing company headed by Steve Ridolfi (ex-Bombardier VP) ? so the status of those 16-20 CRJ-1000’s,is unknown.
The above graph, shows the yearly CRJ orders by type since 1999, as you can quickly see the $49.5 million CRJ-1000 (in red) is a disaster with only 68 orders and 48 deliveries since 2008, and its why Bombardier written off $243 million in 2015 on that disastrous program, a “stretch” (104 seats from a 12 passenger 1970’s Canadair CL-600) too long ?
In the blue is the $41.4 million CRJ-700, its dead now, now interest after 343 deliveries, and only the $46.5 million CRJ-900 has some life left with 31 in backlog, and 397 deliveries, but its “hay” days are over, a sit gets is ass kicked by the E175’s which are more comfortable and specifically designed as a regional airliner and not a business jet stretched 4 times (50 seat CRJ-100/200, 70 seat CRJ-700, 84 seat CRJ-900 and 104 seat CRJ-1000).
Its clear that the CRJ line is dying and with 60 in backlog at the end of September, these is probably only about 48 in backlog (assuming all are really “firm” orders), but few are HIGHLY suspect.
Current outstanding CRJ orders on the books at Bombardier show 63 (?), yet they show 60 in backlog, so they can’t keep things straight in their own house.
20 x CRJ-1000’s for Air Nostrum (Spain) ??? Why? ?/
2 x CRJ-900’s for Arik Air (Nigeria) ??? Nigerian economy
12 x CRJ-900’s for China Express
5 x CRJ-900’s for Chorus Aviation (Canada)
6 x CRJ-700’s for Felix Airways (Yemen) ??? War, in fact 1 of the 2 delivered (order for 8) was blown up by the Saudi led Coalition air strike in April, 2015, as they target hotels, schools, weddings and funerals, and anything that moves, which amounts to war crimes against Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Bahrain.
4 x CRJ-900’s for Iraqi Government ??? War
4 x CRJ-900’s for Trident Jet (Jersey) a sister company of Falko Regional Aircraft for lease to Ireland’s CityJet, the 1st Western European customer of Russia’s Sukhoi SSJ100-95 (15+16 options) and a roll of the dice on Political Risk as the US/NATO/EU are at worst relations with Russia since 1990, and the “Cold War” is on.
10 x CRJ-900’s for UNDISCLOSED ??? mystery customers for the CRJ-900 ? seriously ? can only be some special ops or ‘funny” deal, who knows, but they better take delivery soon !
The above graph shows orders versus deliveries and 3 years now deliveries exceed orders and as I said at 4.2 deliveries per month the CRJ line is done soon, as now (January 3, 2017) the backlog is around 48, or 12 months of production at current rate, which means February, 2018, and only 1 month of production for every 4 orders, so at best June 2018, the program is DONE, and this year Bombardier will have to start planning for this with suppliers.
The above graph, shows the 3 CRJ models production run, you can clearly see the CRJ-700 (in BLUE) die by 2011, next the CRJ-900 (in GREEN) was the “cash cow”, but not anymore and its dying fast with only 19 orders in 2016 (no orders for CRJ-700 or CRJ-1000’s).
The CRJ-1000 (in RED) (PHOTO above) has been “walking dead” since 2011, a shameful program that should have warned Bombardier that the 100-150 seat segment the CSeries is entering is DEAD (killed A318 after 80 deliveries, and the same for the B737-600 after 69 deliveries), and with only 54 deliveries in that segment in 2015 by 4 OEM’s, nothing has changed, the segment is non-performing, even the E195 has less orders than the E175/190.
Sadly, Bombardier was too arrogant and caught up in its marketing hype to listen to anyone, and its why we have only 320 real orders (No 40 for Republic) after 8.5 years of sales, and another disaster in the making just like the A318, B737-600, CRJ-1000, BAe 146-300, ARJ100, F100, etc. all failed to win large orders.
It is by orders or deliveries we must judge an aircraft’s commercial success, not how good it looks or what fancy technology it has, airlines pick aircraft by how how much they cost up front, cost to operate, reliability and how they hold up their residual values, so the life cycle of the aircraft maximizes profitability for the airline operating it. Lots of CSeries “fans” forget that, they think its “hot” and its “hi tech” so it should sell, but commercial aircraft are NOT cell phones !
In short, there will be NO CRJ production by 2019 unless they cut production drastically, and therefore come 2020, Commercial will only have the CS100/300 to sell and attain its planned $5 billion in revenue, which will be difficult as today’s pricing means that will be +140 aircraft, and Bombardier plans to produce 90-120 in 2020 at best today.
There will also be NO Q400, yes after 531 deliveries (as of Sept. 30/2016), with only 23 deliveries in 9 months of this year and only 18 orders so far in 2016, there were only 34 Q400 orders in backlog and at 2.5 per month production, it won’t be around long, as now there should be around 34 in backlog still, with 7 new orders in 4Q/2016 (1 x Air Tanzania and 6 x PAL) and at least 7 deliveries, but still 14 months of production left right now, or March, 2018.
Canada came to the rescue of the $31.9 million Q400 this year, with an order for 9 more from WestJet Encore, 3 from Porter Airlines, representing 67% of the Q400’s orders so far this year, but how long will WestJet, Chorus and Porter keep the Q400 in production ?
Current outstanding 34 orders for the Q400 (as of Sept 30/2016):
1 x for Abu Dhabi Aviation (UAE), 1 delivered already
3 x ANA (Japan), 22 of 25 delivered
2 x Arik Air (Nigeria), 4 of 6 delivered ???
3 x Elix Aviation (Ireland), now delivering them to Island Air (USA)
2 x Ethiopian Airlines, 13 of 15 delivered
3 x Eurolot (Poland), 11 of 14 delivered ???
3 x GECAS (USA) 2 of 5 delivered to this lessor
2 x Horizon Air (USA), 52 of 54 delivered, largest USA operator only one in 48 states, though Horizon is releasing 25+ Q400’s over the next few years as it goes with E175’s
1 x Ilyushin Finance Corp (IFA) (Russia) ??? seriously one ?
3 x Porter (Canada), 26 already in fleet
13 x WestJet Encore (Canada), 12 of 25 delivered, now has +33 in service, should have 45 eventually
Some of the above (around 7 should have been already delivered by now since September and there were 7 new orders in 4Q/2016 (1 x Air Tanzania and 6 for PAL), so still around +/- 34 in backlog.
Above we see the deliveries of the ATR-72-500/500 versus the Q400, and here one can see that the battle was close up to 2011, but then the new ATR-72-600 pulled away, not only is its $25.5 million list price lower, but it has 2 x PW127M engines with a combined 4,950 shp, while the $31.9 million Q400 has 2 x PW150 engines with 10,142 shp (+104% more power), but also higher speed but higher fuel burn and thus higher operating costs (CASM).
The Q400 was designed to be optimized between 300 to 400 nm, above the 400 nm it was the CRJ’s “space” and below the 300 nm it was the DHC-8-Q300 “space”, a real “fuzzy” selling space, between 2 of its own products that one did not want to cannibalize.
The ATR-72-600 is perfect for less than 300nm and most airlines now agree with over 1,077 ATR-72 orders versus 565 Q400 orders, as the ATR-72 is surely the more economical aircraft for regional routes below 300nm, the market has spoken, the ATR-72-600 is the regional airlines #1 choice for a turboprop.
The other reason why the ATR-72-600 in my opinion started to pull away n orders and deliveries is because Bombardier dropped the Q300 in 2011, and that I know worried many operators, they saw Bombardier’s half cocked CSeries venture and the CRJ-1000 fantasy, as strategic move into bigger commercial aircraft that will would surely one day result in even the Q400 being abandoned, and sadly that is coming by March, 2018 with no new orders, and then it could be extended by 1 month for each 2.5 orders, so if they get another high 18 orders like this year, that means and extra 7 months of production, or October, 2018 ending, BUT end it will, sorry.
I hope I have made my case, to show that the CRJ and Q400 line has less than 2 years of life, and that the future of Commercial aircraft at Bombardier rests with the CSeries only by 2019 at the latest. So far the CSeries has been a “dog’ of a performer, with 360 “official” orders, BUT 40 x CS300’s for Republic Holdings from 2010 are “deferred” for ever, as the airline has NO use for them after it sold Frontier Airlines, and now in Chapter 11 bankruptcy, BUT Bombardier cannot let go of 40 orders so they misleadingly keep them on the books, so 320.
BUT, there are still 28 x CS100’s questionable orders (10 x Gulf Air, 5 x Iraqi Airways, 3 x Lease Corp, 10 x Odyssey Airlines) AND 98 x CS300’s are questionable (16 x SaudiGulf, 20 x Ilyushin Finance Corp, 5 x Iraqi Airways, 17 x Lease Corp, 40 x Macquarie AirFinance).
So Bombardier realistically has anywhere between a low of 194 to a high of 320 “REAL” firm orders that should be delivered, between now and the end of 2020 (Bombardier expects 255 to 315 deliveries by Dec 31, 2020), should cover the existing orders perfectly.
Till next time, keep reading my blog and question more, the airlines, OEM’s do not always tell the media all, and there is a lot of news “behind the headlines”, cheers.