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Aeropolitics, Airline Management, Commercial Airliners, Major Airlines, Regional Aircraft, Regional Airlines, UPDATES

UPDATE: Sukhoi’s SSJ100 is soon to enter service with Ireland’s CityJet, as that airline is sold by Intro Aviation to it’s pro-Russian CEO Pat Byrne and his “investors” . The airline will be leasing 21 of the aircraft and supporting the Russian Military Industrial Complex, as Sukhoi and its parent United Aircraft Corporation are under EU/US economic sanctions. At a time when the “Cold War” is back on in Europe it is repulsive for many Europeans as maybe the Irish don’t care or know what is happening in Eastern Europe and the Baltics between NATO and Russia, but most people who are in the know are nauseated by Russia’s never changing anti-western propaganda, the same narrative of the 1950’s to the 1980’s, just different faces, we are the western “imperialists”, the west is bad and Russia is good propaganda, and do you want to fly on a Russian airliner ? Say NYET to CityJet and its Russian jets and any other airline that wants to support Russia’s military by wet leasing the aircraft from CityJet. The program is a joke, this month its 5 years for the SS100 program, 102 delivered and only 66 as of these are in service today, and 36 sitting around waiting for a ‘home’, NOT GOOD, they are new aircraft, they need to fly not sit. The Russians need the SSJ100 to be a western success, to open doors to their 165+ passenger single aisle Irkut MC-21 which is due in 4 years. The “political risk” associated with operating the SSJ100 is huge given today’s political situation, and why any airline executive would risk the entire future of his airline on ‘political events’ is beyond my comprehension, it must be about money, as it cannot be about a long term sustainable business model with a “game changer”, which it surely is not, in fact it is outdated today as Embraer E2’s , MRJ’s and CS100’s are greatly superior in economics and passenger comfort. BUT the money is huge today for anyone wanting a Sukhoi ! as Russia is desperate, as the planned 45 units for production in 2015 became only 17 due to “low demand”.

Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) subsidiary, Sukhoi Civil Aircraft (SCAC) is celebrating its its 5th anniversary for the Sukhoi SuperJet 100, and it sure has not been a smooth ride for the Russians.

ssj100-cityjet-350x264

After 5 years (as of April, 2016) there are only 66 aircraft in out of 102 produced, leaving 36 aircraft in storage waiting for a customer, NOT good anyway. Presently Russia’s Aeroflot has 26 in service (40% of in service), Mexico’s Interjet with 20 in service (30% of in service), Russia’s oil company Gazprom has 10 in service (15% in service).

So 3 operators have 85% of the SSJ-100’s in service, a very concentrated market, with 70% of the in service aircraft based in Russia, as till now only Mexico’s Interjet is the only foreign operator of the type, as 3 foreign operators (Armavia of Armenia, Sky Aviation of Indonesia and Lao Central) went bankrupt operating the aircraft.

CityJet of Ireland is the about to receive its 1st 98 passenger SSJ-100 in May, 2016 with 21 on order to replace its 18 x Avro 85’s (95 passenger), plus 12 x CRJ-900’s for ACMI operations. This follows the sale of CityJet to founder Pat Byrne, a real fan of the the Russian Sukhoi airliner, who has become their biggest propagandist in the western world for the Russians and he is joined by some equity partners that don’t mind the BIG risk of operating Russian airliners at a time when the “Cold War” is back on.

As well, Russia faces economic sanctions over its occupation of Crimea, and more sanctions to come once the criminal findings by the Dutch in regard to the downing of MH17 (Malaysian B777 over Ukraine in 2014) with a Russian BUK anti-aircraft missile from Russian rebel supported region of Eastern Ukraine. Those new sanctions should include the Russian civil aircraft industry. The Sukhoi SSJ-100 is part of the Russian military industrial complex and what CityJet is doing is supporting Russian military aggression and its Armed Forces by buying Sukhoi products.

There is no if’s or but’s here, CityJet needs to be boycotted by all Western European airlines and passengers, as as I write we have high tensions in the Baltics, we have new US F-15’s deployed to Iceland and F-22’s to Romania, while a new and 3rd US rapid deployment Brigade is planned for Eastern Europe to show Putin that there is a line in the sand. A company like CityJet is a TRAITOR to Europeans, especially those that were under Russian occupation from WW2 to 1990 and know first hand how treacherous Russia is.

CityJet is a Russian marketing tool, probably backed by Russian money to show off the SSJ-100 to western Europe, the Russians tried to get SSJ-100’s into airBaltic through one of their ‘agents’ who came in as a 20% investor, Ralf Dieter Montag-Girmes, was scheming to place SSJ-100’s into airBlatic (which as 20 x CS300’s on order and is the ‘launch’ customer for the type), but the Latvian government steppe din and said NO to Russian aircraft purchases, leases and operation, bravo ! All of Europe should follow that example today, from governments, passengers, airline executives, say NO to supporting Russia’s military industrial complex !

The privatization of Adria Airways saw, Intro Aviation, then the owner of CityJet try and buy the airline, surely to place SSJ-100’s into Adria, as Intro Aviation has been very aggressive in bringing SSJ-100’s into Western Europe supporte dby Russian money, and when Intro Aviation sold its VLM Airlines (Belgium) in a MBO (management buy out) it all of a sudden wanted 12 x SSJ100’s ? surpised no ! but the new management under CEO Hamish Davidson is wiser than the previous management, and has cancelled that interest. Running an airline is difficult enough without worrying about “political events” out of your control that can ground your fleet or stir up so much public opposition that your airline is now being boycotted because you have an aircraft from an unfriendly nation.

I bet Russians backed the initial VLM MBO as the SSJ100 order was too quick, when VLM had so many other problems and I am sure that Russians or their money are involved some how in the CityJet acquisition as well, as today helping President Putin sell the SSJ100 to the west is reportedly very lucrative given 1/3 of the fleet is sitting and waiting for customers, and in 2015 only 17 were built from a planned 45, as ‘white tails’ were scattered throughout Russia waiting for a customer. The European Commission should investigate that deal and make sure that 51% control of CityJet is in the hands of European citizens, and not Russians.

ssj-Aeroflot-Sukhoi-Superjet-100-Copyrighted-to-aeroflot-2

Why anyone would buy CityJet when it has been losing money for years as a AF/KLM carrier, and with $US 33+ million loss in 2014 on revenues of $US 194 million it has not changed. So what value does an airline that leases old Avro 85’s and produces huge loses ? ZIP ! the SSJ100 deal is more profitable for Intro Aviation then selling the whole company, and as a business it has shown it cannot make money. Now, CityJet wants to buy Aer Lingus regional partner Stobart Air (ex-Aer Arann) which had 2014 revenues of $US 140 million and also lost $US 15 million, though it just may have been profitable last year. The price is around $US 71 million which at 0.50 x revenue looks like a very good deal, given Canadian regionals bought by EIC have been around 0.7 x revenue.

A CityJet and Stobart Air tie up would create a huge regional airline, as Stobart Air today operates 16 x ATR’s (2 x ATR72-200’s, 2 x ATR72-500’s, 10 x ATR72-600’s and 2 x ATR-42-300’s) of which 3 aircraft are wet leased to FlyBE and 13 fly for Aer Lingus Regional, no jets yet, but a successful acquisition will surely have SSJ100’s in the picture real soon, as the commission on those aircraft is apparently very high, enough to pay for the acquisition anyway.

Shame on the airlines that plan to ACMI the Sukhoi, I will be here name and shame the airlines that do, so that freedom loving Europeans can have the opportunity to boycott any airline using the Russian built SSJ-100’s. Look we do not buy Russian cars, trains, ships so why buy their aircraft ? we have great products from Embraer, Bombardier that today are way better than the SSJ100, with the new PW1000G family of engines the Snecma powered SSJ100 is NOT competitive on fuel burn, maintenance costs, its just CHEAP because its is subsidized by the Russian government to sell it to the West, and leasing terms are rock bottom, so any airline is credit approved and hence the many airline failures and cancelled orders as the airline was not around to take possession of the aircraft.

The SSJ100 is crucial to Russia’ civilian aircraft industry, as it is building its own Irkut MC-21 single aisle 163 to 230 seat family of commercial aircraft, and it’s success is very dependent on the SSJ100 opening up the western market, so crush the SSJ100 in Europe and you strike a blow against the MC-21.

So come on Europe, look around and see the trouble Russia is once again stirring up, and our military is dealing with Russian aggression everyday, as Russian bombers violate Canadian, US, European air space everyday, and are we in 1939 all over again ? Russia still cannot let go of the fact it is not a global super power anymore. Europeans can do little to show displeasure with Russia, BUT you can say NYET to CityJet and its Sukhoi aircraft and any other airline planning to use the Russian jet liner, a boycott of the airlines will send a strong signal to Russia and any potential operators.

Look the SSJ100 is just not selling, IF Aeroflot was not coerced to buy Russian airliners to fly Russian passengers its order book would be a disaster. I here a great deal from the Russians about sales to RAM (Morocco), Chile, Egypt, Iran but where is the money ? no deals done yet ? and why is the Russian government doing aircraft deals when it should be SuerJet International ? it shows there is a problem in this Italian/Russian joint venture, but no one is talking, but NOT good.

Sukhoi has faced reality and has lowered its projections from 830 to just 595 (82 Basic version, 331 LR version, 140 SSJ-130 stretched version and 42 SBJ’s business jet versions).

Anyway, the planned deliveries have gone out the window, targets not even close:

Production has been slow to ramp up, below is planned versus actual:

2009 = 1

2010 = 2

2011 = 4

2012 = 12

2013 = 25

2014 = 37

2015 = 45 but only 17 produced

2016 = 56 but now only 25 planned

2017 = 60 ?

So with currently 36 aircraft sitting, do you really want an aircraft that cannot be sold ? that may have major issues with support under any future economic sanctions ? Any airline executive worth his pay should avoid the huge POLITICAL RISK associated with being dependent on the Sukhoi SSJ-100 at a time when anyone who reads newspaper and follows global news, knows that things are NOT good with Russia again.

Future sanctions I hope will ground the CityJet SSJ100 fleet, as commercial aerospace must be targeted under future sanctions, and CityJet’s new investors will hopefully get burned for supporting the Russian military industrial complex that today is preparing for more conflict with Europe and the US, its all a game for the Russians, but a deadly serious one that could go very bad with just one stupid pilot/soldier/sailor doing something seriously wrong.

Sad, that majority of people do not even know how serious events are on the Eastern European frontier with Russia.

Bleow is the current history of the Sukhoi SSJ-100-95 SuperJet production from 2009 thru April 1, 2016 as best as I could compile it, as right now Red Wings (Russia) is getting rid of its SSJ100’s and other aircraft on the move as Russia’s leasing companies are giving them to any airline in Russia and elsewhere with a pulse, and we shall see more aircraft coming back in a year or two.

SSJ-100 Production

SUKHOI SSJ100-95 SuperJet Production/In-service Analysis

c/n Status Operator and Comment

1 In-service Red Wings…………………………………………2009 Production = 1 aircraft
2 In-service Red Wings…………………………………………2010 Production = 2 aircraft
3 Demo
4 Storage ?……………………………………………………….2011 Production = 4 aircraft
5 Demo
6 Storage ?
7 Storage ?
8 In-service Red Wings – now going to Yakutia………………2012 Production = 12 aircraft
9 In-service RusJet Air
10 In-service Red Wings – now going to Yakutia
11 In-service Ministry of Internal Affairs (Russia)
12 Storage ?
13 Storage ?
14 Storage ?
15 Storage ?
16 In-service Red Wings, ex-Aeroflot
17 Storage ?
18 In-service Red Wings, ex-Aeroflot
19 Undelivered Going to Yakutia Airlines
20 Undelivered Going to Yakutia Airlines………………………2013 Production = 25 aircraft
21 Undelivered Going to Red Wings, ex-Moskovia
22 Storage ?
23 In-service Interjet (Mexico)
24 In-service Interjet (Mexico)
25 In-service Aeroflot
26 Storage Ex-Lao Central Airlines
27 Storage ?
28 In-service Interjet (Mexico)
29 In-service Aeroflot
30 Undelivered Going to Rossiya
31 Storage ?
32 Demo
33 In-service Gazprom
34 In-service Interjet (Mexico)
35 In-service Aeroflot
36 In-service Interjet (Mexico)
37 Undelivered ?
38 In-service Interjet (Mexico)
39 In-service Aeroflot
40 In-service Interjet (Mexico)
41 In-service Aeroflot
42 In-service Interjet (Mexico)
43 In-service Aeroflot
44 In-service Aeroflot
45 In-service Interjet (Mexico)……………………………………… 2014 Production = 37 aircraft
46 In-service Interjet (Mexico)
47 In-service Aeroflot
48 In-service Interjet (Mexico)
49 In-service Interjet (Mexico)
50 In-service Interjet (Mexico)
51 In-service Aeroflot
52 In-service Interjet (Mexico)
53 In-service Aeroflot
54 In-service Interjet (Mexico)
55 In-service Gazprom
56 In-service Gazprom
57 In-service Gazprom
58 In-service Gazprom
59 In-service Aeroflot
60 In-service Comlux-VIP version
61 In-service MCHS Rossi
62 In-service Yamal Airlines
63 In-service Aeroflot
64 Undelivered Going to Gazprom
65 In-service Interjet (Mexico)
66 In-service Interjet (Mexico)
67 Undelivered Going to Rossiya
68 In-service Aeroflot
69 Undelivered MCHS Rossi
70 Undelivered Yamal Airlines
71 In-service Interjet (Mexico)
72 In-service Interjet (Mexico)
73 Undelivered ?
74 In-service Aeroflot
75 Demo
76 In-service Aeroflot
77 In-service Rossiya
78 Undelivered Gazprom
79 In-service Aeroflot
80 Undelivered Gazprom
81 In-service Interjet (Mexico)
82 In-service Aeroflot…………………………………………………….2015 Production = 17 aircraft
83 Undelivered Rossiya
84 In-service Aeroflot
85 Undelivered Interjet (Mexico)
86 Undelivered Interjet (Mexico)
87 Undelivered Interjet (Mexico)
88 In-service Aeroflot
89 In-service Aeroflot
90 In-service Aeroflot
91 In-service Aeroflot
92 Undelivered Gazprom
93 Undelivered Going to Royal Thai Air Force-VIP for King
94 In-service Aeroflot
95 Undelivered Going to Royal Thai Air Force-VIP for King
96 Undelivered Kazakh Air Force
97 In-service Aeroflot
98 In-service Aeroflot
99 In-service Aeroflot 2016 Production = 25 aircraft ?
100 Undelivered ?
101 Undelivered ?
102 Undelivered CityJet (Ireland) 1st EU operator
103 Undelivered ?
104 Undelivered Interjet (Mexico)
105 Undelivered Interjet (Mexico)
106 Undelivered Interjet (Mexico)
107 Undelivered ?
108 Undelivered CityJet (Ireland) 1st EU operator
109 Undelivered ?
110 Undelivered CityJet (Ireland) 1st EU operator
111 Undelivered CityJet (Ireland) 1st EU operator
112 Undelivered ?
113 Undelivered ?
114 Undelivered ?
115 Undelivered ?
116 Undelivered ?
117 Undelivered CityJet (Ireland) 1st EU operator
118 Undelivered ?
119 Undelivered ?
120 Undelivered ?
121 Undelivered ?
122 Undelivered ?
123 Undelivered ?

Till next time, thank you once again.

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About Aviation Doctor - Helping aviation companies to transform the present into a more profitable tomorrow

I am a Canadian and EU national with an MBA and 33+ years experience in aviation business development with 20 years overseas and work in 25+ countries. A former investment/merchant banker (mergers and acquisitions to corporate turnarounds). airline and OEM senior executive and past owner of 6 successful aviation companies in 3 countries (executive jet charter/management companies, aircraft sales, aircraft broker, airline/aerospace consulting to aircraft insurance). I have a very diverse aviation background with 75+ aviation companies (45+ airlines of all sizes, OEM's, airports, lessors, MRO to service providers) as consultant, executive management, business analyst and business development adviser. Excellent success track record in International Business Development. Most work with airlines is with new start-ups and restructuring of troubled carriers. I sold new business jets, turboprops and helicopters for Cessna, Raytheon, Gulfstream to Eurocopter as an ASR as well as undertaking sales and marketing of commercial aircraft for Boeing, de Havilland, Dornier, Saab and Beechcraft. Brokered everything from LET-410's to B747's and from piston PA31 to G550 business jets. I look beyond the headlines of the aviation news and analyze what the meaning and consequences of the new information really means. There is a story behind each headline that few go beyond. Picked the name Aviation Doctor, as much of my work has been with troubled companies or those that want and need to grow profitably. I fix problems be in the business, and help with restructuring for a better tomorrow. You can reach me with comments or suggestions at: Tomas.Aviation@gmail.com and I comment a lot on Google+, my Facebook and LinkedIN.

Discussion

2 thoughts on “UPDATE: Sukhoi’s SSJ100 is soon to enter service with Ireland’s CityJet, as that airline is sold by Intro Aviation to it’s pro-Russian CEO Pat Byrne and his “investors” . The airline will be leasing 21 of the aircraft and supporting the Russian Military Industrial Complex, as Sukhoi and its parent United Aircraft Corporation are under EU/US economic sanctions. At a time when the “Cold War” is back on in Europe it is repulsive for many Europeans as maybe the Irish don’t care or know what is happening in Eastern Europe and the Baltics between NATO and Russia, but most people who are in the know are nauseated by Russia’s never changing anti-western propaganda, the same narrative of the 1950’s to the 1980’s, just different faces, we are the western “imperialists”, the west is bad and Russia is good propaganda, and do you want to fly on a Russian airliner ? Say NYET to CityJet and its Russian jets and any other airline that wants to support Russia’s military by wet leasing the aircraft from CityJet. The program is a joke, this month its 5 years for the SS100 program, 102 delivered and only 66 as of these are in service today, and 36 sitting around waiting for a ‘home’, NOT GOOD, they are new aircraft, they need to fly not sit. The Russians need the SSJ100 to be a western success, to open doors to their 165+ passenger single aisle Irkut MC-21 which is due in 4 years. The “political risk” associated with operating the SSJ100 is huge given today’s political situation, and why any airline executive would risk the entire future of his airline on ‘political events’ is beyond my comprehension, it must be about money, as it cannot be about a long term sustainable business model with a “game changer”, which it surely is not, in fact it is outdated today as Embraer E2’s , MRJ’s and CS100’s are greatly superior in economics and passenger comfort. BUT the money is huge today for anyone wanting a Sukhoi ! as Russia is desperate, as the planned 45 units for production in 2015 became only 17 due to “low demand”.

  1. Tomas, could you please calm down the anti-Russian rhetoric. Thank you

    Like

    Posted by Philip Mulville (@jamahariya) | February 6, 2017, 4:09 pm
    • I am sorry, but won’t calm down the anti-Russian rhetoric, do you know what is happening in the Baltics, eastern Ukraine, Crimea, Transnistria, South Ossetia and Abhazia ? its Hitler before crossing into Poland, so NO, we Europeans need to stand up to Russian aggression, military occupation of the territories of Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine is NOT acceptable in 21st century, thank you.

      Like

      Posted by Aviation Doctor - Helping aviation companies to transform the present into a more profitable tomorrow | February 6, 2017, 5:55 pm
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