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SUMMARY: The 2014 General Aviation turboprop market did very well again with 603 aircraft delivered from 10 OEM’s (from 6 countries) down 6.5% from 2013. The delivery value was $US 1.887 billion down 5.6% from 2013, with 79% of all deliveries being single engine turboprops (474 aircraft), of which 26% were pressurized singles (157 aircraft) and 53% (317 aircraft) were un-pressurized singles which includes Agricultural aircraft (aka ‘crop dusters’) with 30% of all deliveries (181 aircraft). Twin turbine deliveries were 21% (129 aircraft) of all turbine deliveries (98% were King Air’s), the BIG winners were Textron Aviation with 221 deliveries (Caravan and King Air line), Pilatus with 76 deliveries (PC-12 and PC-6) and Socata with 51 deliveries (TBM900). The BIG losers were Extra (EA500) with 2 deliveries, Piaggio (Avanti II) with 2 deliveries and PAC (750XL) with 4 deliveries and these OEM’s have a highly questionable future ahead with such low production rates and owners risk having an ‘orphaned’ aircraft (out of production with no support and little resale value). Only 5 of the 10 OEM’s are US based BUT only 3 of the OEM’s are actually US owned, and 6 out of the 10 OEM’s produce only one turboprop model with 10 new programs in the works, including 4 high speed pressurized turboprop singles and 5 un-pressurized twin turbine aircraft (4 of which are “revivals” from the past, so only 1 “new” twin model). The new models are ‘hoping’ to enter the highly risky GA market shortly, though few of them will ever make it all the way to certification, production and successful commercialization, you need lots of money, have the right people in place and most importantly a product the market actually ‘needs’ !

READ : The 2015 General Aviation Market of February 16, 2016 The numbers are in for the production of general aviation (GA) turboprops in 2014, and while the year was slightly down from 2013 it was a good year with 603 produced for a net value of $US 1.887 billion between 10 OEM (original equipment … Continue reading

ABSTRACT: Bombardier may have its CSeries launch customer in newly re-branded Lufthansa Group owned Swiss Global Air Lines which ‘should’ get the aircraft by 1Q/2016 ? at the earliest, while Bombardier desperately tries to ‘re-position’ the Q400 as a viable ATR-72-600 competitor with a “secret new technique” of slowing it down for better fuel economy and trip costs ?? the Q400 is $10 million more expensive, it uses 104% more power (shp), therefore it burns 40% more block fuel, engine maintenance is more expensive on PW150 than PW127 so how can it be economically close to the ATR which out sells the Q400 by a wide margin even with deep discounting on the Q400, meanwhile experts say the CSeries needs to be discounted by 50% to get the needed BIG airline orders as that is what BIG airlines expect, welcome to the BIG league Bombardier where huge discounts (30% to 50%) by Airbus and Boeing are the norm rather than the exception which can be up to 65%, and you can’t win a price war against Boeing or Airbus, can Bombardier even afford to heavily discount now that break-even has to be 580+ units as the CSeries program cost grows to $5.4 billion from an initial $3.4 billion and production is planned at only 10 per month ? break-even is now 6 years of production, can it afford NOT to discount with sales still stuck at a scant 243 “firm” orders (some highly questionable) after 6 years and NO major US airline order in sight ? meanwhile Lufthansa Group’s Austrian Airlines takes 17 x E195’s over CS100’s just like Air Canada kept its 25 x E190’s instead of buying the CSeries last summer, both after a thorough cost evaluation, so what gives with the economics of the CSeries ? Learjet without the Learjet 85 has little to offer, a sale of that company should be considered, the ‘good’ news is that Bombardier successfully raised $C 868 million in new equity and $C 2.25 billion in high yield debt to bolster its liquidity problem.

The news at Bombardier Inc. keeps getting worst, as this past week China’s locomotive manufacturers China CNR Corp. was acquired by China CSR Corp. in a $US 26 billion merger, creating a large state owned enterprise (SOE) that will surely give the 3 other large train manufacturers Siemens (Germany), Bombardier (Canada) and Alstom (France) lots … Continue reading

ABSTRACT: Chorus Aviation, the biggest Air Canada Express partner with 122 aircraft, is buying DHC-8 / CRJ-200 ACMI operations specialist Voyageur Airways for $C 80 million on the heels of an amended CPA (capacity purchase agreement) with Air Canada (AC) that now extends into 2025, and one that requires Chorus to lower its costs, one way to do that is to set up a separate low cost unit (Voyageur Airways) to operate the older DHC-8-100/300’s at a lower cost base , and another unit will continue to operate the newer and bigger Q400’s, CRJ-705’s and the CRJ-200’s, it is a strategic move to lower labor costs (at $95,442 per employee, 9% higher than at AC) and to stop other regional airlines like Sky Regional and Air Georgian from winning new AC CPA business in the future, Chorus Aviation is paying a rather high 4.7 times EBITDA to have its ‘low cost subsidiary’, the old and out of production DHC-8’s (average 26 years old) have become a burden on Chorus which generates 99.2% of its business from AC, its previous attempts to diversity have all failed, a regional LCC is a fantasy, too little room for extra seats or extra utilization to drive CASM’s down, Chorus Aviation’s 2014 Net Income margin of 3.9% is very low and cash flow was negative $C 45 million, AC needs low cost regional partners more than ever now and it just gave Chorus a 10 year life line to shape up.

Canada’s Chorus Aviation Inc.  (TSX: CHR.B, CHR.A) is to buy all of the issued shares of 519222 Ontario Ltd. A holding company that owns North Bay, Ontario based Voyageur Airways and its affiliated companies for around $C 80.0 million to be its ‘low cost’ DHC-8-100/300 operator, a mini version of Rouge, which is Air Canada’s … Continue reading

ABSTRACT: Sukhoi’s 93 seat, $35 million SSJ-100 has received 30 orders this year already (Aeroflot x 20, Interjet x 10) and is looking to a new stretched version by 2018, is this aircraft a real competitor to Embraer, Bombardier and Mitsubishi ? or just a ‘niche’ aircraft mainly for the Russian Federation ? it’s Snecma SaM146 engine is a CFM56 derivative which is being phased out in the industry as new generation engines come on line on the Boeing MAX, CSeries, MRJ Embraer E2’s and Airbus neo aircraft, with published SSJ fleet aircraft utilization at 8 operators between a low 93 to 166 hours per month this has to be worrying for any operator, is there a problem with support ? reliability ? or the operators ? delivery to its first Western European customer, VLM Airlines of Belgium is delayed until 3Q/2016 due to cerification, as well the aircraft’s future international success depends on Russia’s foreign policy, if new sanctions have to be added they will target the Russian aerospace industry, crushing Russia’s dream of being a serious international commercial aircraft player with the SSJ-100 and future Irkut MC-21, without international orders, no company can be a major player in this industry, no matter how big its domestic market is.

The SuperJet International SpA (a joint venture between Alenia 51%, Sukhoi 49% on the Sukhoi SSJ-100 SuperJet) with 182 orders, has received a follow on order from Mexico’s Interjet for 10 more of the aircraft for a list price of $US 350 million, though no one pays list price for commercial aircraft today, not at … Continue reading